Tropical Depression 04 Enroute

[Call me bubba]

thursday  update

 

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) continues to gradually lose strength as it traverses across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...still poses a threat to Central and Northern Luzon.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

• Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol, and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Sunday morning (Apr 05) through Monday morning (Apr 06).

WINDS

• Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Catanduanes and Northern Coasts of Bicol - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, Apr 02...0300 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea (near 12.6N 133.7E)
About: 910 km east-northeast of Borongan City...or 1,035 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km North from the Center and 85 km South from the Center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 13 kph
Forecast Movement: Northwest to West-Northwest @ 17 kph
Towards: Eastern Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move on a northwest to west-northwest track during the next 24 hours...turning more to the west-northwest to west with an increasing speed on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Eastern and Central Part of the Philippine Sea through Saturday morning.

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue to gradually lose strength throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 130 kph by Saturday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Moves over the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...weakens further slightly...about 715 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM APR 03: 14.0N 130.8E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it moves across the Central part of the Philippine Sea...significantly gaining speed...about 210 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM APR 04: 14.8N 125.7E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Accelerates further and weakens into a Tropical Storm after traversing Northern-Central Luzon Area...about 130 km west-northwest of Baguio City [8AM APR 05: 16.9N 119.5E @ 100kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
 

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu Apr 02, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 12.6º N Lat 133.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 890 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 1040 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 1180 km ESE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 4: 1055 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 1140 km ESE of Metro Naga

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

appears for members who live in Subic.Metro manila and south of the NCR maybe spared from

the storm. at least the heavy rains,

.

Edited April 2, 2015 by Call me bubba

[Call me bubba]

My flight on Asiana leaves Mactan to Seoul Korea after midnight friday. What are the chances of delays are cancels flight?

Call  ASIANA and ask them, maybe try the USA customer service number

as it appears now, slim chance of being delayed/cancelled but remember this is Cebu

 

[lonewolf]

hope all goes well my fianceeon that flight as well

[Midniterider]

hope all goes well my fianceeon that flight as well

It appears that flight will easily be able to fly around the system prior to it's affecting the flight patterns. Just an educated guess but it seems that way. 

MY CONCERN NOW IS THE TOTAL RAINFALL CAUSED BY THESE 3 SYSTEMS IN A ROW CAUSING DEADLY FLOODING.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/movies/gmsirbbm/gmsirbbmjava.html

 

Don't rule out the outer rain bands of the first system not affecting Manila, Subic et al. They WILL. 

 

 

"Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)

Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km North from the Center and 85 km South from the Center"

 

STILL A CATEGORY 4, WILL WEAKEN TO A CAT 3. 

 

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?AGE=Latest&ACTIVES=15-WPAC-04W.MAYSAK,15-SHEM-91S.INVEST,15-SHEM-93S.INVEST,15-WPAC-99W.INVEST&PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=wp&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc15/WPAC/05S.BANSI/tpw/microvap&SUB_PROD=1km_zoom&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2015&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2015/wp012015.15011312.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2015/wp012015.15011312.gif&CURRENT=20150402.0801.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.04WMAYSAK.115kts-937mb-128N-1333E.100pc.jpg&CURRENT_ATCF=wp012015.15011312.gif&ATCF_NAME=wp012015&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2015&MO=MAR&BASIN=WPAC&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&YEAR=2015&YR=15&STORM_NAME=04W.MAYSAK&ARCHIVE=active&STYLE=tables&PROD=vis&TYPE=ssmi&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc15/WPAC/04W.MAYSAK/vis/geo/1km_zoom&USE_THIS_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc15/WPAC/04W.MAYSAK/ssmi/scat&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

Edited April 2, 2015 by Midniterider

[Midniterider]

HEH HEH Tell me about it lol. 

 

"The irony of the upcoming storm is its timing: in April, just after the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration officially declared the onset of the nation's dry, or summer, season."

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/04/01/asia/super-typhoon-maysak/index.html

 

 

 

[jpbago]

HEH HEH Tell me about it lol. 

 

"The irony of the upcoming storm is its timing: in April, just after the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration officially declared the onset of the nation's dry, or summer, season."

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/04/01/asia/super-typhoon-maysak/index.html

 

Some of the nation may be dry during the summer but not here. It has been very dry for the past 4months since December 1.

[jon1]

Yes we should be getting feeder bands of rain starting tomorrow sometime. We could sure use it as everything is brown here. The winds here have been keeping us dry (from the southwest). 

[Call me bubba]

here is the list or areas that could be affected by the upcoming storm  

 

 

The Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) on

Thursday named areas likely to be affected by typhoon "Chedeng" (international name Maysak).

The typhoon entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday midnight and is moving toward Luzon.

 

Undersecretary for Local Government Austere Panadero said in a televised briefing that nine regions,

37 provinces and 71 cities would experience the effects of the typhoon.

 

Local government units in the areas, meanwhile, have set up emergency response teams. :hystery: :hystery: :hystery:

The provinces are listed below based on their distance from the center of the typhoon.

 

Within 75-kilometer radius of the cyclone:

 

• Abra
• Aurora
• Benguet
• Ifugao
• Ilocos Sur
• Isabela
• Kalinga
• La Union
• Mountain Province
• Nueva Ecija
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Pangasinan
• Quirino

Within 150-kilometer radius of the cyclone:

• Apayao
• Bulacan
• Cagayan
• Camarines Norte
• Catanduanes
• Ilocos Norte
• Pampanga
• Quezon
• Rizal
• Tarlac
• Zambales

Within 300-kilometer radius of the cyclone:

• Albay
• Bataan
• Batangas
• Camarines Sur
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Marinduque
• Masbate
• Metro Manila
• Northern Samar
• Mindoro Occidental
• Mindoro Oriental
• Sorsogon

 

 

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2015/04/02/1440198/list-provinces-be-affected-chedeng

Edited April 3, 2015 by Call me bubba

[Call me bubba]

sat am update,,,,THIS will be my last update as the storm will not be as bad as 1st predicted

 

 

 

TYPHOON MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 04 April 2015
Next Update: Saturday Afternoon, 04 April 2015

Typhoon MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has further weakened as it continues to move West-Northwestward closer to Eastern Luzon...increasing the threat to Northern and Central Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by Sunday morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 70 to 90 percent.

Typhoon Trivia: The last Typhoon ever to make landfall over Northern Luzon in April was Typhoon VIOLET (KARING) of March 31-April 12, 1967...where it impacted Isabela and nearby provinces on the 8th, with estimated winds of 185 kph. Only 3 deaths were reported during its passage with considerable damage.

 

 

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

• Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 mm to 50 mm): Northern Bicol and Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - Saturday evening (Apr 04) through Monday morning (Apr 06).

WINDS

• Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Northern Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04). Eastern sections of Central and Northern Luzon - beginning Saturday evening (Apr 04).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, Apr 04...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TY Maysak (Chedeng)
Location: Over the central part of the Philippine Sea (near 14.6N 127.2E)
About: 340 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...or 575 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 175 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 30 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 505 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 140 km North from the Center and 90 km South from the Center
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 17 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 25 kph
Towards: Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will move on a generally west-northwest track throughout the forecast outlook...with a slight turn to the northwest on the second half of the forecast period. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Central and Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Sunday early morning...and shall make landfall along the shores near the Aurora-Isabela border sometime before or after sunrise. It shall then traverse Northern Luzon crossing Southern Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga on Sunday morning through the afternoon...and shall be over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday late afternoon or early evening, (April 5).

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will maintain its weakening trend throughout the forecast period...Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 75 kph by Monday early morning, April 6.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves over the western part of the Philippine Sea...nearing the shores of Aurora-Isabela border...weakens into a strong Tropical Storm (TS)...about 70 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM APR 05: 16.5N 122.7E @ 110kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the northern part of the South China Sea...after exiting the P.A.R. through the northwestern border...just a weak TS...about 355 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM APR 06: 19.5N 117.5E @ 75kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Stalling over the northernmost part of the South China Sea...weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 275 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM APR 07: 20.3N 115.9E @ 55kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
 

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Apr 04, 2015
Location of Center: Near 14.6º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 330 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 375 km ENE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 415 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 445 km ENE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 625 km ESE of Baler, Aurora

 

http://typhoon2000.ph/update.html