Methersgate Posted May 20, 2016 Posted May 20, 2016 (edited) To sum up my position I have a lot of Filipino friends who think that the wheels are going to come off the Duterte administration, within a year or so. It is fair to say that none of them voted for him, so it might be wishful thinking on their part. But they include people who are well "wired in" - a TV producer, a news editor, the sister of a Senator, and so on. This is without factoring in the Trillanes allegations. Be it noted that the Ombudsman says that her office will continue to work on these but she is inhibiting herself because her brother is married to Duterte's daughter. Duterte is a populist, and, when things go wrong, he will point the finger at any available target. This is likely to include "foreigners". He already plays up his dislike of the USA, and has taken a swipe at Australia. He hasn't noticed Canada or the UK yet. I just think that conditions for foreigners may become a little more adverse. I don't go as far as some Pinoys who foretell the "next Venezuela"! Edited May 20, 2016 by Methersgate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mogo51 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 (edited) The man has not even taken Office yet, still we have many lining up to join the hype - stop and smell the roses! I would not be packing my bags at this stage. IF Philippine politics is anything like Oz politics, what he is promised, rarely happens. Edited May 21, 2016 by mogo51 typo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris49 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 On 5/20/2016 at 1:29 AM, Methersgate said: To sum up my position I have a lot of Filipino friends who think that the wheels are going to come off the Duterte administration, within a year or so. It is fair to say that none of them voted for him, so it might be wishful thinking on their part. But they include people who are well "wired in" - a TV producer, a news editor, the sister of a Senator, and so on. This is without factoring in the Trillanes allegations. Be it noted that the Ombudsman says that her office will continue to work on these but she is inhibiting herself because her brother is married to Duterte's daughter. Duterte is a populist, and, when things go wrong, he will point the finger at any available target. This is likely to include "foreigners". He already plays up his dislike of the USA, and has taken a swipe at Australia. He hasn't noticed Canada or the UK yet. I just think that conditions for foreigners may become a little more adverse. I don't go as far as some Pinoys who foretell the "next Venezuela"! This is called scaremongering. Pushing the panic button before the event. Foreigners are not involved in any of this. Foreign governments yes, and normally to the Philippines advantage. Noy Noy recently extended the US Forces agreement with further concessions on base access and usage. Let Duterte interfere with that and I will start scaremongering myself. None of the above is likely to happen. (All Posts) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sander Martin Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Dutertes goal of getting a steel mill going is a joke. Steel mill itself is great, but hes ad on TV said that once he gets the steel mill going Phillipines can start producing cars, cellphones etc. There was a huge list of items that have steel parts. Yes while most items contain steel(some more, some less), then steel is the easiest component. There is alot more in building a car then a steel frame :D... The reason why there isn't meny multi national manufacturing plants here is all political and how corrupt and hard everything is. Just look at Thailand. Plants everywhere, all the big Japanese car builders have plants (because of the Thai rule that if its a imported car you pay double the money on tax). Thats why 99% of the cars there are Japanese brands made in Thailand. You got to be really rich to own a BMW or Merc when the cars cost you double on what they cost in Europe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSwede Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 China even build cars with "what-look-like" steel, no need for that obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methersgate Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 3 hours ago, chris49 said: This is called scaremongering. Pushing the panic button before the event. Foreigners are not involved in any of this. Foreign governments yes, and normally to the Philippines advantage. Noy Noy recently extended the US Forces agreement with further concessions on base access and usage. Let Duterte interfere with that and I will start scaremongering myself. None of the above is likely to happen. (All Posts) Hang on a cotton-picking minute! I wrote: " I just think that conditions for foreigners may become a little more adverse. I don't go as far as some Pinoys who foretell the "next Venezuela"! You call THAT "Scaremongering"? You must scare easy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sander Martin Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Methersgate i agree 99% with what you posted and so do most educated Filipinos. Rodrigo is just a populist like Trump. I remember reading Rodrigos reply on how he got 200+ mil pesos on one of hes accounts... He said he got that for hes 65(i think it was 65) birthdsy and that he has rich friends. Where do you find rich friends like that? I wouldent mind over 5mil usd for my next birthday. Id be happy with even 5k usd haha ???. Just a populist like Trump... Trump would actually be richer now if he put the money he got from hes daddy into a term deposit. Hes a useless businesman. Hes casino went bankrupt and thats the only business where people give you money for nothing ??... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSwede Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, Sander Martin said: Hes a useless businesman. Hes casino went bankrupt and thats the only business where people give you money for nothing ??... He, you got me laughing good there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methersgate Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, Sander Martin said: Methersgate i agree 99% with what you posted and so do most educated Filipinos. Rodrigo is just a populist like Trump. I remember reading Rodrigos reply on how he got 200+ mil pesos on one of hes accounts... He said he got that for hes 65(i think it was 65) birthdsy and that he has rich friends. Where do you find rich friends like that? I wouldent mind over 5mil usd for my next birthday. Id be happy with even 5k usd haha ???. Just a populist like Trump... Trump would actually be richer now if he put the money he got from hes daddy into a term deposit. Hes a useless businesman. Hes casino went bankrupt and thats the only business where people give you money for nothing ??... ... and when asked why he hadn't declared the money in his SALN, he replied that he had spent it all on "hapi-hapi"!!! One of his rich friends being of course the fake propet Apollo Quiboloy, a self-appointed "son of God"! I have been told (and it seems entirely reasonable) that Trillanes' source for the allegations about Duterte's banck accounts and properties is in fact NICA. NICA have access to and good relations with the CIA, and, pertinently in this case GCHQ. If there is one organisation that can know more about your bank account than your Bank does, it's GCHQ. NICA have undoubtedly had Duterte under observation for a while. I agree with all your write as do my Filipino friends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methersgate Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 1 hour ago, Sander Martin said: Dutertes goal of getting a steel mill going is a joke. Steel mill itself is great, but hes ad on TV said that once he gets the steel mill going Phillipines can start producing cars, cellphones etc. There was a huge list of items that have steel parts. Yes while most items contain steel(some more, some less), then steel is the easiest component. There is alot more in building a car then a steel frame :D... The reason why there isn't meny multi national manufacturing plants here is all political and how corrupt and hard everything is. Just look at Thailand. Plants everywhere, all the big Japanese car builders have plants (because of the Thai rule that if its a imported car you pay double the money on tax). Thats why 99% of the cars there are Japanese brands made in Thailand. You got to be really rich to own a BMW or Merc when the cars cost you double on what they cost in Europe. This being the Philippines, when someone important says something patently stupid, like the steel plant idea. we can operate on the "All The President's Men" principle, and "Follow the Money"! Two of Duterte's big campaign sponsors were the Yao's (Universal Steel, who have 52% of the Philippines' rebar market) and the Jacintos, as in the old National Steel. Duterte has said that he intends to increase spending on infrastructure to 5% of GDP - a fairly huge figure - and he has put Mark Villar in charge of Public Works and Highways... So that's two and two... let's make five... Suppose that the steel for all this new infrastructure were to come at two prices - one being the international price, plus tariff, and the other were a preferential price for "Filipino Steel"... Wouldn't that be a sweet deal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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