I hope that local governments and residents take this to heart

[Nephi]

1 hour ago, OnMyWay said:

Oh come on!  I have to call you out on this.  Where are you getting this?

You are describing a world war scenario and genocide, within 2 weeks of ending the treaty.  This would be mass chaos worldwide as China would be immediately isolated from the civilized world.

75% exterminated?  The rest will be slaves?  What books are you reading?

Book? No book; just a reasonable deduction based on current and developing events. That and the history of Japan before and during WWII. I would be happy as can be if I'm wrong but I do believe that would be the outcome if there were no mutual defense treaty. They have spent countless billions to make reefs into small, limited use islands where the Philippine has all the basic and advanced infrastructure already in place. That makes this real estate worth most anything to the Chinese.

China has a very large and well trained army capable of mounting a full blown invasion. Any "reasonable", well intentioned country would not have in every sense of the word, invaded reefs and atolls and turned them into armed military installations in the South China Sea-but China has done and continues to do exactly that. I have no doubt they would by force take over the Philippines if they thought the price to pay was low enough. Even now, they are gambling on a daily basis with those man made islands.

[OnMyWay]

9 minutes ago, Nephi said:

I have no doubt they would by force take over the Philippines if they thought the price to pay was low enough.

That is the key you are leaving out.  The price is too high.  World war?  Most oil imports stopped?  China exports banned in most countries?  Destruction of their economy?

[robert k]

13 minutes ago, Nephi said:

Book? No book; just a reasonable deduction based on current and developing events. That and the history of Japan before and during WWII. I would be happy as can be if I'm wrong but I do believe that would be the outcome if there were no mutual defense treaty. They have spent countless billions to make reefs into small, limited use islands where the Philippine has all the basic and advanced infrastructure already in place. That makes this real estate worth most anything to the Chinese.

China has a very large and well trained army capable of mounting a full blown invasion. Any "reasonable", well intentioned country would not have in every sense of the word, invaded reefs and atolls and turned them into armed military installations in the South China Sea-but China has done and continues to do exactly that. I have no doubt they would by force take over the Philippines if they thought the price to pay was low enough. Even now, they are gambling on a daily basis with those man made islands.

 

 

There is a huge difference between helping yourself to a few uninhabited islands that currently have little value and invading a country of 100 million.

[Nephi]

47 minutes ago, Nephi said:

Book? No book; just a reasonable deduction based on current and developing events. That and the history of Japan before and during WWII. I would be happy as can be if I'm wrong but I do believe that would be the outcome if there were no mutual defense treaty. They have spent countless billions to make reefs into small, limited use islands where the Philippine has all the basic and advanced infrastructure already in place. That makes this real estate worth most anything to the Chinese.

China has a very large and well trained army capable of mounting a full blown invasion. Any "reasonable", well intentioned country would not have in every sense of the word, invaded reefs and atolls and turned them into armed military installations in the South China Sea-but China has done and continues to do exactly that. I have no doubt they would by force take over the Philippines if they thought the price to pay was low enough. Even now, they are gambling on a daily basis with those man made islands.

 

 

 

28 minutes ago, OnMyWay said:

That is the key you are leaving out.  The price is too high.  World war?  Most oil imports stopped?  China exports banned in most countries?  Destruction of their economy?

I hope to goodness Y'all are right and I'm wrong. Hope epecially that mutual defense treaty stays in place so we never have to find out

[robert k]

25 minutes ago, robert k said:

There is a huge difference between helping yourself to a few uninhabited islands that currently have little value and invading a country of 100 million.

There is a huge difference between having a huge pool of manpower and being able to project that power. In 2001 when the coalition invaded Iraq, how long did the build up in theatre take? Rhetorical question, it took over half a year. Why didn't they just sail over and make an amphibious assault? because they would have been at a tremendous disadvantage.

China wouldn't be able to start the conquest of the Philippines from land. If China's troop carriers, including their aircraft carrier wind up at the bottom of the ocean, there will be no invasion. Japan alone could put a stop to it. Australia might think it was a good idea that it not happen. The US might stop it just to give China a black eye. All it would take is submarines, and who is to say whose submarines? China isn't going to sneak an amphibious invasion past all the satellites.

China is very safe against invasion. That doesn't mean they can project that military power globally. I mean, has China ever gotten their aircraft carrier back into the shape necessary to launch and recover fighter jets? Last I heard it's a floating troop transport. If it got sunk there go half your bodies for an initial invasion and follow on waves would be pitiful, more like refugees on anything that would float than a military operation. The allies in WW2 were still using cruise ships for troop transports. They were supposed to surrender if called upon to do so by the enemy. Not all got the chance. So, tell me where China is going to make this build up for the amphibious assault? Oh, and it should be done covertly also.

It's just not in the cards.

 

[Kuya John]

Well now we have prevented a WW3, perhaps we can plant a few more trees and clean up the seas around Philippines

[robert k]

2 hours ago, Kuya John said:

Well now we have prevented a WW3, perhaps we can plant a few more trees and clean up the seas around Philippines

I really wish we could. That plastic out there will one day be a valuable resource, just like the uninhabited islands.

I wish we would plant more trees and regulate them responsibly. Young mature trees are best so we should immediately start harvesting the dead sterile old growth forests and replace them with young vibrant trees which would provide oxygen and a habitat where wildlife could thrive. Wildlife doesn't thrive in old growth forests because there is nothing to eat there and a lack of underbrush to hide in, grass doesn't grow where not enough light reaches the ground. 

The forest fires take the old growth forests anyway, hundreds of square miles of them every year because nobody can cut them. It's stupidity to not divide up the forests with fire breaks large enough that you don't risk all and so the fires would be much easier to put out. Crazy idea, but the wood could be used to build homes instead of becoming ash and adding to the pollution and CO2 in the air.