First World Philippines

[MikeB]

I probably read more news then anyone here. If you think my view is narrow, so be it.

[ironmaiden]

 

I still don't see any industries, the only jobs I see are in special economic zones like Clark, callcenters...

 

Would have to disagree unless you mean just in your local area. A google search will show lots of new production plants in operation or soon to be. This one just from yesterday, http://www.philstar.com/business/2015/03/09/1431427/bulacan-host-philippines-biggest-steel-plant

 

Don't forget that this is a country with 100 million people. It takes a lot to change the lives of most of them. A few new plants here and there is just not gonna make a big change. Unless I'm wrong and there's a lot more new industries being build here. But from what I see, it's just metro manila and surrounding area and probably Cebu and Davao... Is there really a lot going on apart from the 3 big cities in this country? Cause I doubt they can carry the weight of the whole country...

[Dave Hounddriver]

I keep up with Philippines news

 

Philippine news is written by the middle class and up and it is only for the middle class and up.  The vast majority are not taught to stand up for themselves or for what is right.  Those lessons are taught in every 1st world school and nothing will change here until the local majority believe it can change.  Such is my opinion

[Jollygoodfellow]

 

I keep up with Philippines news

 

Philippine news is written by the middle class and up and it is only for the middle class and up.  The vast majority are not taught to stand up for themselves or for what is right.  Those lessons are taught in every 1st world school and nothing will change here until the local majority believe it can change.  Such is my opinion

 

 

Dave, the news I talk about are not just Philippine papers. They are from around the world, business news or websites.

[John Michael Kane]

I don't think most Americans and other first-worlders are willing to put up with the poor infrastructure in the Philippines to make it a destination place for retirement for massive numbers of expats. Simply put, outside of a few expensive condo offerings, the average Filipino house and neighborhood doesn't match up to what's in North America or Europe. Prices on condos are often out of touch versus income of the average pensioner. I smell a bubble bursting and many condo speculators caught holding half-finished projects that will never see a roof over their head. Some lessons are never learned.

[Jollygoodfellow]

I probably read more news then anyone here. If you think my view is narrow, so be it.

 

I think you took what I meant wrong. I mean narrow by just locally. I doubt if there will be big changes in the province areas for a long time but overall things are changing more than just rich getting richer. In the province in any country things change more slowly but having said that I recall some small city was set up last year to cater for call centers so maybe some areas will change faster.

[John Michael Kane]

Given the abundance of cheap labor, there will continue to be business opportunities. The question is, will the corrupt/inept government and poor infrastructure make it worth it as a destination for startups or established businesses outside of a few well-developed areas like Makati?

[afathertobe]

With the right government and intelligent investment laws and incentives the Phils could profit from a catch up effect for a while. But this requires infrastructure and an investment climate conducive for foreign manufacturers to relocate part of their production to the Philippines rather than Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia or elsewhere. Only with more employment and solid professional training and experience can the Philippines slowly move up the economic ladder to somewhere close to Thailand in the next 10 years. For anything more than that I just don't see the basics in place in terms of culture and education. 

[lonewolf]

part of the problem is business more times than not are set up to take advantage of workers, short term contracts, minimal benefits, 12 shift instead of 8 hrs, working many times 7 days aweek, yes they help the worker to feed families better, but the base living condition are so low any little bit is welcome as long as they can get it. and if you dig you ll find especially in industry,manufacturing, their here because of hazardous materials restriction in there home countries

[Methersgate]

I'd like to offer a number of comments, as a once and future resident who knows a number of people in the Philippines and foreign media.

The next elections:

 

First, only a fool will make any predictions until the results of the 2016 elections are known. At the moment, Vice-President Binay is still the candidate most likely to win, according to the SWS polls, which have a long track record of reliability. 

 

I will now pass on a comment from a Philippines bureau chief of a news agency (he is himself Filipino) - " Binay and Estrada had a low profile, but irrevocable, falling out, a couple of years back. They dressed it up as policy differences but it was actually over the redevelopment of the older districts of Manila, where many land titles have fallen in due to unpaid taxes".

 

That makes Binay slightly more vulnerable, but he is still in pole position.

 

The same man remarks that Duterte and Santiago are both currently  looking for a rich sponsor who will fund a run at the Presidency for them - neither can expect to win, but both will probably be funded as "spoliers" to take votes away from others - and they can expect to do very well out of such an arrangement, financially. There may be others.

 

Neither Binay nor Roxas is likely to make any moves to change the Constitution to promote FDI

The currency and the banking system: 

This is from a veteran political figure: 80% of all Bank loans are to the Government. That explains both why the Filipino banking system seems so secure and why there is so little entrepreneurial activity in the nation as a whole. At the same time, inward remittances from OFWs keep the balance of payments reasonably healthy, though any prolonged consumer boom would damage it, as most goods are imported either complete or CKD or as components. Many cars and motorcycles are built in Indonesia and imported...

In other words, the price of a sound financial system, given the low level of tax take, is low entrepreneurial activity, hence low economic growth, and large numbers of Filipinos working abroad - there is therefore no incentive on the Government to provide work for them at home, although the economic impact of the OFWs working at home, rather than leaving the value added by their labour abroad, would be immense.

Meanwhile the RH law has been left unfunded, and the population continues to explode.

 

If we compare the Philippines with Cambodia, we see that the Cambodian Government has enacted laws to promote FDI and is serious about infrastructure - ports, railways, roads. We can reasonably expect Cambodia to overtake the Philippines in a few years.

Those comments are from serious, well educated, Filipinos.

 

Feel free to draw whatever conclusions you like.

The conclusion I draw, as one who moved to live in the Philippines under Ramos, is that the next twenty years will be much like the last twenty years - exploding population, modest economic growth, no substantial reforms, currency (thanks to OFW remittances, not to growth) remaining moderately hard. 

Edited March 10, 2015 by Methersgate