Popular Post cebuseminole Posted March 10, 2015 Popular Post Posted March 10, 2015 Well, as someone who is in process of winding down a 5 year residence here, my take is that things are getting progressively worse in almost every facet of life here. As long as there is nobody to teach people how to think/reason, doesn't matter who is president. The 100+ families who control this country, will continue to control, and the poor will continue to be poorer and more ignorant. the poverty rate(official)grows, and it's even higher than the official rate. "That's just the way we do it in the Philippines" will ALWAYS be the way it is, and it will ALWAYS be a 3rd world country. Like Mike B. I read a lot also, and even used to contribute a lot for others to read, but I understand now, that they just don't want to improve. Give 'em their entertainment and their murders and corruption in politics, and they're a happy lot. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guy F. Posted March 10, 2015 Posted March 10, 2015 "The more things change, the more they stay the same" is an aphorism which I regularly repeat. While I hope that is not true in the current context, it seems to represent the consensus of opinion in this thread. Certainly it seems to describe most of the history of the Philippines. A fact to add to the discussion is that the PI has the second fastest-growing economy in the world, exceeded only by China. http://www.philstar.com/business/2015/03/09/1431711/infographic-philippines-among-worlds-fastest-growing-economies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hey Steve Posted March 10, 2015 Posted March 10, 2015 (edited) One of the issues to consider is that if economic growth truly takes hold in the next, say, 5-10 years (to look at the picture optimistically), the opportunities will mainly be in the big cities (Manila, Cebu, Davao..) and, as is always the case, the poor from the provinces will be migrating to where the money is and the question will be ..can these cities absorb the influx of these "economic refugees" from these provinces all over the country (further congestion). They want a piece of the action too. What impact will this have? Even with very limited opportunities presently in the big cities, there are so many that migrate to the cities now. It will only get much worse in my opinion. Another long term economic concern I think about is what if the key countries that the Philippines serves as OFW'S go to war? Who will absorb the exodus of these workers? The host country of these OFW workers (Philippines) will feel the heat and this impact of returning OFW's in droves can be looked at varying degrees-none of which are positive from an economic standpoint. So,to look into this crystal ball about 10 years down the road and to see what this holds for Ex Pats, I do believe the dollar will stay strong against the peso and as long as we are willing to sacrifice infrastructure for other reasons to enjoy life in the Philippines, my money says there will be very little change in affordability and ability to live our personal dream of retiring here/there.. Edited March 10, 2015 by Hey Steve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Methersgate Posted March 10, 2015 Posted March 10, 2015 I agree that this is an interesting and important question for anyone settled in, or thinking of settling in, the Philippines. One of the biggest questions is nicely set out in this Wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Philippines The birth rate is falling, but the rate of population increase is still very high. What these figires actually mean is that the population will have doubled, to 200 million by 2050. This will cause a few problems. My impression is that most available farmland is already being farmed, intensively, with high inputs of fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, and that there are few resources available for further irrigation. The Philippines is not self sufficient in food. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewool Posted March 10, 2015 Posted March 10, 2015 Well i would just like to add to this, I hope that in ten years time, i shall be settled and living well somewhere where is safe and with my family, living well, eating well, and enjoying every day as they come, BRING IT ON 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB Posted March 10, 2015 Posted March 10, 2015 A fact to add to the discussion is that the PI has the second fastest-growing economy in the world, exceeded only by China. It's not a fact. The article clearly states these are projections for 2015 based upon surveys. And what is the basis of that? Official Government Statistics like 6% unemployment for the last quarter of 2014? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Midniterider Posted March 11, 2015 Popular Post Posted March 11, 2015 A fact to add to the discussion is that the PI has the second fastest-growing economy in the world, exceeded only by China. It's not a fact. The article clearly states these are projections for 2015 based upon surveys. And what is the basis of that? Official Government Statistics like 6% unemployment for the last quarter of 2014? "Fast" growing economy ? Not from where I sit. With actual unemployment for 18-24 year olds running at 50% or better what country could survive that for very long ? The RP govt. figures do not even consider unemployed women at home as being part of the 'work force" which roughly curves everyone up to 50%. It's all smoke and mirrors and always has been. And I wouldn't use China as a benchmark for anything in the near future: “Few countries that had grown debt relative to GDP as fast as China did over the past few years escaped from a financial crisis in the form of significant currency devaluation, major banking sector recap, credit crunch and/or sovereign debt default (often a combination of these).” http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/09/china-economic-crash-bank-of-america-analysts http://fortune.com/2015/03/05/chinas-gdp-target-cut-good-or-bad-the-answer-lies-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder/ In the RP, industrialization is at a snail's pace that remains completely unsupported by inadequate infrastructure, and the agricultural sector continues on it's downward slide in a nation where 2/3 of the entire country are already dirt poor agricultural workers. Domestic investment appears to be only interested in bigger and better malls (for what consumers?) and property development, with nil foreign investment which is generally discouraged and only given wishful thinking lip service. So where is the impetus and evidence for any upward mobility (an illusion even in North America) to expand the tiny middle class that is only propped up by loose credit ? Not everyone can work in BDO or call centers and even that industry is undergoing a reversal in outsourcing at least in the U.S., and the voice element will be eventually replaced with the robot systems currently dominating the U.S. system. And with the current trends in governmental bumbling which can't seem to operate without the normal culture of complete corruption (with the possible exception of the DFA) and the open civil war on Mindanao flaring up significantly this place seems to be doomed for most. I'm sorry if I can't remain any kind of optimist in this environment. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-31762595 A couple more natural disasters on a wide scale and we're toast. The honeypot op (Chinese ?) that kept out the 7th Fleet from bringing millions upon millions of USDs in income at Subic Bay facilities may be put back into operation so easily here as well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mogo51 Posted March 11, 2015 Posted March 11, 2015 I find this topic very interesting. Although not yet living in Phils, a parallel can be drawn between that country and Thailand.Having been here now for 6 years, I have seen a considerable rise in the cost of living. Particularly the last 2 years, at least 15% rise from my assessment. Of course, this country (Thailand) is in political crisis and under Marshal Law. Whilst there is little difference in day to day living, The country's direction is in a state of confusion. The junta is rolling out 'sovereign' based policies, there is little chance of it progressing under their control. They cannot separate their military thinking and pursue more open policies to bring development and prosperity to the country. Like Phils,the rich/poor gap here is just as wide. Is the sentiment of the Government the same in Phils? From reading the posts, it could well be? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post DavidK Posted March 11, 2015 Popular Post Posted March 11, 2015 Some reputable economic journals have boiled down economic growth to requiring investment in two areas - infrastructure and education.Put money (effectively) into those two things and you will start to see benefits. Unfortunately where corruption is endemic and "the few" are making sure they cream off the top then the chances are it won't happen like it should. Of course you also need sensible foreign investment laws to bring enterprises in from outside. The OFW's protect the Philippines from the worst of the economic downturns and encourage those with get up and go to get up and be gone. I suspect the next 10 years will be like the last, with life for the average person not much changed. Still, they've got their religion to keep them warm....... It will still be cheaper for expats than most other English speaking areas and just as frustrating :-). 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mogo51 Posted March 11, 2015 Posted March 11, 2015 Yes agree DaveK and this is why your predictions will probably come true. These two areas in Thailand are amongst the most corrupt. Roads are built here but substandard, due to rorting the funds and replacing with 'underdone' projects which quickly disintegrate. Funds meant for education of the children a vitally important future requisite, are syphoned off by civil servants and their bosses. Sad but true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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