Tropical Depression 04 Enroute

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Posted

HI TW 04 ! Wake up PAGASA ! Or am I seeing things lol. I know it's far away and distances are deceiving and usually they wait until they're close to the PAR but hmmm.  

 

Very pretty graphic but not the one we're about to watch: 

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/03/31/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=128.03,9.92,1821

 

Japan watches everything. And with good reason;

 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

 

Typhoon season is supposed to be June through November, which is why you won't see anything posted in the US Central Pacific Hurricane center site until June and thus nothing from the Joint Marianas site either....however:

 

"El Nino sets in; PAGASA warns of 'erratic' typhoon season"

 

http://www.rappler.com/science-nature/earth-space/86466-onset-el-nino-pagasa-philippines

 

 

Maybe it will fizzle out. I hope. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/outreach/resources/handouts/hurricane-2014.pdf

 

 

 

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post-3405-0-09146400-1427448693_thumb.gi

post-3405-0-71780300-1427448701_thumb.jp

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Posted

If the northeasterlies continue to be strong it will either steer to the east or stall and be cut apart by the high level wind shear. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-wv.html

 

We could sure use the rain here as everything is bone dry.

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Posted

If the northeasterlies continue to be strong it will either steer to the east or stall and be cut apart by the high level wind shear. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-wv.html

 

We could sure use the rain here as everything is bone dry.

yes thank you however Japan predicts a straight track; we'll see, nearly anything could happen this far away. 

 

this site updates itself which is cool:

 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

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Posted

Here's the latest on this storm.  Predicted to be a typhoon by Sunday morning, but won't affect us until late next week.  Hopefully, it veers north and misses the Phils entirely.

 

 http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2015/tropical-storm-Maysak?map=5day

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Posted (edited)

There's another storm following on the heels of this one which is already predicted to be a Cat 4 but landfall is unknown: first one is too far away in distance and time about 5 days but remains a threat regardless.

 

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2015/03/29/prepare-for-the-unknowns-of-typhoon-maysak-morning-update/

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/04/03/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=137.99,6.27,1106

 

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/

Edited by Midniterider
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Posted

 

That is a really cool link!   :thumbsup:  If the USN is right it will hit northeastern Luzon sometime late on the 5th... 

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Posted

Typhoon Maysak, heading toward Philippines, could be as bad as Cyclone Pam, meteorologist says

A typhoon heading towards the Philippines could be as severe as Tropical Cyclone Pam, which tore through Vanuatu this month, a meteorologist says.

 

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At 5:00pm (AEDT) on Monday, Maysak's centre was located approximately 130 kilometres north-east of Faraulep Island, in the Federated States of Micronesia.
 
Over the next 48 hours, the typhoon is expected to intensify significantly before hitting Yap Island and continuing north-west towards the Philippine Sea.
 
Neville Koop, a meteorologist with Fiji's Na Draki weather service, said Typhoon Maysak was expected to become a super typhoon, with winds near the centre exceeding 270 kilometres per hour with gusts of up to 340 kilometres per hour.
 
"It already is quite a large one," he told Radio Australia's Pacific Beat program.
 
"This is a very strong typhoon now. It will probably reach an intensity equivalent to Tropical Cyclone Pam when it peaks later tomorrow."
 
This is a very strong typhoon now. It will probably reach an intensity equivalent to Tropical Cyclone Pam when it peaks later tomorrow.
 
Meteorologist Neville Koop
Typhoon warnings have been issued for Yap, one of the four states that make up the Federated States of Micronesia.
 
There are reports that three people have died due to the typhoon in the islands of Chuuk state to the east.
 
"As a very intense storm, it's going to affect a lot of islands ... [some] up to 200 kilometres away from the centre," Mr Koop said.
 
Mr Koop said Maysak was tracking at about 10 knots on a north-north-west path.
 
"It's been on a very consistent path ... that's taking it towards Luzon Island in the Philippines eventually," he said.
 
"In this case, the track forecasts are fairly reliable."
 
Cyclone Pam was one of the worst natural disasters to hit Vanuatu in living memory.
 
Eleven people lost their lives and tens of thousands were left homeless.
 
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Posted

here is the GIF of the storm

 appears that it will be a BIG ONE

activetrack.gif

 

 

SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 9:00 PM PhT (13:00 GMT) Wednesday 01 April 2015
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 02 April 2015


Super Typhoon MAYSAK has weakened slightly as it continues to move closer to the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...forecast to cross the eastern border early Thursday morning (April 02).

MAYSAK is now the 3rd most-intense Super Typhoon (at Category 5 strength) ever to form early in the Season (from January to April). The other two Super Typhoons with similar strength in the past were: Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone. aro_blue_sm2.gifWINDS

  • Moderate to Strong Winds (gusts of up to 75 kph): Catanduanes - beginning Saturday afternoon (Apr 04).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, Apr 01...0900 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY Maysak
Location: Off the eastern border of P.A.R. (near 11.5N 136.1E)
About: 310 km northwest of Colonia, Yap...or 120 km east of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 220 kph near the center...Gustiness: 280 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 50 to 300 mm [Moderate to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 130 km from the Center
Past Movement: Northwest @ 20 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 13 kph
Towards: Eastern Philippine Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY MAYSAK will move on a generally west-northwest track with decreasing speed during the next 24 hours...regaining its previous velocity on the remainder of the forecast outlook. On the forecast track, MAYSAK shall be entering the PAR early Thursday morning (Apr 02) and will move across the Eastern Part of the Philippine Sea through Friday afternoon.

MAYSAK will continue to gradually lose strength throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 175 kph by Friday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

aro_blue_sm2.gifTHURSDAY AFTERNOON: Moves over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea...weakens slightly and no longer a Super Typhoon...about 915 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM APR 02: 12.5N 133.8E @ 215kph].
aro_blue_sm2.gifFRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gradually weaken as it moves towards the Central part of the Philippine Sea, regaining its previous speed...about 620 km east-northeast of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon [2PM APR 03: 14.1N 129.6E @ 175kph].
aro_blue_sm2.gifSATURDAY AFTERNOON: Bends slightly west towards the Western part of the Philippine Sea...weakens further...about 185 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM APR 04: 14.8N 125.4E @ 160kph].

*Current WPF Forecast Confidence Level: HIGH.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
 

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Apr 01, 2015
Location of Eye: Near 11.5º N Lat 136.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 1135 km ENE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 1165 km E of Borongan City
Distance 3: 1310 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 1325 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 1420 km ESE of Metro Naga
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF

wp201504_5day.gif

 

 

 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/682885/maysak-slightly-weakens-heads-for-isabela-aurora

 

TYPHOON Maysak (local name Chedeng) slightly weakened on Wednesday afternoon but still poses a threat to the country.

The typhoon packed maximum sustained winds of 190 kilometers per hou

and gusts of up to 225 kph, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.

Maysak also increased its speed at 20 kph while moving west-northwest.

 

The typhoon is expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility by Wednesday evening or early Thursday. It is seen to make landfall on Saturday or Sunday over Aurora, Quezon or Isabela.

Despite the typhoon, the dry or summer season officially arrived on Wednesday, Pagasa said.

The ridge of a high-pressure area is affecting northern Luzon, Pagasa added.

 

Cagayan Valley, Cordillera and Ilocos region will experience partly cloudy skies.

Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rains or thunderstorms.

 

The effects of Maysak won’t be felt until Friday, Pagasa said.

 

In Metro Manila, rains and gusty winds are expected over the weekend.

The rest of the country will have warm and humid condition.

 
 
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Posted

My flight on Asiana leaves Mactan to Seoul Korea after midnight friday. What are the chances of delays are cancels flight?

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Posted

It looks to me that it will not be close enough to Cebu yet to affect flights on Friday (tomorrow).... my $.02

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