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Well, we are at the end of February.  Despite the media freak out regarding the spread of the virus, I found some new perspective on this whole thing with just a little bit of searching.  Take a gander at this article from 2018, which I corroborated by going to the CDC website.  80,000 deaths in the US from influenza and flu-related problems during the 2017/2018 flu season. Just in the US.  To use another data point, 2.4 million Americans die each year from various causes.   

Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind.  I just do not see it as being as deadly as people are making it out to be.  Spreading fast, maybe so.  

influenza.jpg

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3 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said:

Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind

Strange, in another thread on global warming people were saying that so many experts agreeing means there could not possible be a mistake.  Do you think they could be . .  um . ..  wrong?  :shock_40_anim_gif:

 

In truth, I agree the "could" be wrong.  But I prefer to take all the precautions I can.  For example, Philippines did not want us transiting via South Korea due to the virus there.  And yet the only one coughing up a storm so far has been the Filipino at the ticket desk who checked us in.  Nah,  couldn't be.  The experts say it is in South Korea, not here in Mactan.  :571c66d400c8c_1(103):

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10 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said:

Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind.

That is the same logic that the consipiracy theorists use for the Y2K problem, I worked on Y2K... we did so much we fixed 99.9% of the problems that would have occured.  Now, because there were very few problems people say it wasn't real and they are WRONG.

 

I honestly think the same sort of thing is happening with Covid-19, because China reacted in a way that only an autocratic country can and shut down basically an entire province the virus didn't spread like it could have.  If they had ignored it then in a few years it could be as common as polio was in the 40s and 50s (not as deadly though).

 

 

 

 

Edited by GeoffH
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9 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said:

Well, we are at the end of February.  Despite the media freak out regarding the spread of the virus, I found some new perspective on this whole thing with just a little bit of searching.  Take a gander at this article from 2018, which I corroborated by going to the CDC website.  80,000 deaths in the US from influenza and flu-related problems during the 2017/2018 flu season. Just in the US.  To use another data point, 2.4 million Americans die each year from various causes.   

Unless the deaths climb drastically in coming weeks, this is starting to look like a huge hyped-up market manipulation of some kind.  I just do not see it as being as deadly as people are making it out to be.  Spreading fast, maybe so.  

influenza.jpg

Marvin - You are only giving the number of deaths, not the total number of cases, and most importantly the MORTALITY RATE.   Here is a more complete set of numbers, also from the CDC.  48.8 million sick, with 79,000 deaths.  That equates to a death rate of .0016 (ie 1.6 deaths per thousand cases of flu).  The estimate for the current strain is estimated at 2 to 3% (ie 20 to 30 deaths per thousand).  So if 50 million in the USA get this flu you could potentially have 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 people die of flu and/or flu related illness.  Yes, people die of the flu every year but this flu at a rate at least 10 times greater as what we are used to.

https://time.com/5610878/2018-2019-flu-season/

he 2018-2019 flu season may not have been as severe as the one that came before it, but it set a record of its own, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say. It was the longest in a decade, lasting 21 weeks.

Fewer illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths were reported this year than during last year’s notoriously brutal flu season, earning the 2018-2019 season an overall severity rating of “moderate,” according to a new CDC recap. But the length and trajectory of the most recent flu season—which began in November, peaked in mid-February and trailed off in April—was unique, the CDC says.

Most flu seasons start off with lots of infections from influenza A viruses, which can be more severe and less responsive to vaccination than other subtypes, while generally less-severe influenza B viruses often strike later. But this year, the CDC says, two different phases of influenza A activity dominated the season, contributing to its unusual length. H1N1 circulated widely from October to mid-February, then H3N2 picked up from mid-February into the spring, according to the new report.

Even still, high early-season vaccination rates and a relatively effective annual vaccine appeared to help suppress illnesses. In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.


Pediatric hospitalizations were similar to last year’s levels, the CDC says, but there were fewer pediatric deaths: 116 children died from the flu this year, compared to 183 last year.

Although the 2018-2019 flu season is over, the CDC is already reminding people to get vaccinated ahead of the 2019-2020 season, since it’s the best way to reduce the risk of getting and transmitting influenza. October, ahead of the bulk of flu season, is the best time to get vaccinated, according to the CDC.

 

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