fillipino_wannabe Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 4 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said: Signs are pointing to this virus being either a lot less deadly or a lot less infectious than we are hearing about. Looks like it's much more deadly to me, people were talking of 1-2% mortality rate before. Most European countries have a mortality rate more like 10-20%. Doubt it will stay that high but looks like it will be higher than 2% to me. You can't calculate mortality rate based on total cases either, some of them will still die. Should be calculated against those who have recovered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 Just now, fillipino_wannabe said: Looks like it's much more deadly to me, people were talking of 1-2% mortality rate before. Most European countries have a mortality rate more like 10-20%. Doubt it will stay that high but looks like it will be higher than 2% to me. You can't calculate mortality rate based on total cases either, some of them will still die. Should be calculated against those who have recovered. I understand the reason for calculating mortality rates, but to put things in perspective we should perhaps look at infection and mortality rates against the total population. For example, didn't the Phillippines have a mortality rate of 100% at the beginning? It all depends on the purpose of the statistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bastonjock Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 Perhaps the virus does not do so well in hot and humid climates , there have been 3 deaths in the UK ,by this morning and our government are having another emergency meeting to discuss further action Italy is closing down citys in the north ,their fatality rate is climbing , they had 137 deaths in one day Keep calm and carry on ,just wash your hands more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 Just saw this announcement by the government of the Phillipines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Boggs Posted March 9, 2020 Author Posted March 9, 2020 5 hours ago, fillipino_wannabe said: Looks like it's much more deadly to me, people were talking of 1-2% mortality rate before. Most European countries have a mortality rate more like 10-20%. Doubt it will stay that high but looks like it will be higher than 2% to me. You can't calculate mortality rate based on total cases either, some of them will still die. Should be calculated against those who have recovered. Look at the Diamond Princess, and look at Hong Kong, and then see if you still agree with that point of view. 3700 people were on the Diamond Princess. Less than 700 infected, and 7 dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) Less than 700 infected and 7 dead means the mortality rate is over 1% and inside the 1 to 2% range being quoted by the WHO. Edited March 9, 2020 by GeoffH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fillipino_wannabe Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 52 minutes ago, Marvin Boggs said: Look at the Diamond Princess, and look at Hong Kong, and then see if you still agree with that point of view. 3700 people were on the Diamond Princess. Less than 700 infected, and 7 dead. Not really a big enough sample though is it? Also says that 444 of those 700 are still infected with 32 'critical' according to this website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Hounddriver Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 6 hours ago, fillipino_wannabe said: Looks like it's much more deadly to me, people were talking of 1-2% mortality rate before. Most European countries have a mortality rate more like 10-20%. Totally agree with you. If people take the China numbers out of the equation the death rate is much higher than the governements and media want us to know. Reason is that Communist China was able to force people to stay home and stop the spread whereas first world countries are not taking it seriously. For those who want to do the math you can pick a state like Washington State and examine the number of cases vs the number of deaths. 19/136 = 14% death rate as of right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guy F. Posted March 9, 2020 Posted March 9, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said: Totally agree with you. If people take the China numbers out of the equation the death rate is much higher than the governements and media want us to know. Reason is that Communist China was able to force people to stay home and stop the spread whereas first world countries are not taking it seriously. For those who want to do the math you can pick a state like Washington State and examine the number of cases vs the number of deaths. 19/136 = 14% death rate as of right now The Washington State cases around a nursing home with a lot of really old people, don't you know. The one nursing home so far has had 13 deaths. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-washington-kirkland-life-care-center-deaths Edited March 9, 2020 by Guy F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum Support Mike J Posted March 9, 2020 Forum Support Posted March 9, 2020 8 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said: For those who want to do the math you can pick a state like Washington State and examine the number of cases vs the number of deaths. 19/136 = 14% death rate as of right now The last I looked at least 13 of the 19 deaths you reference are from a single nursing home for the elderly. It is not reasonable to extrapolate a death rate for the corona virus as a whole from that single incident. That being said, it paints a very troubling picture when the virus gets loose in such an environment. Elderly, infirm people, compromised immune systems, etc packed into a cloistered environment with being cared for by staff who most likely have little or no medical training. In such situations it is like dropping a lit match into a tinder box. The percentage you quote is actually in line with what has already been published. The death is much higher among the elderly and also those who have existing health problems, far lower for young people and children. Sad situation indeed, I sympathize with those families who still have loved one in the facility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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