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Kuya John

Knock on effect of the virus

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

And how much sense does that make to you.  The rest of the world has about 15% dead for all concluded cases but the Philippines is at 66%.  Sounds like they are not finding all the cases . . not even close.

As of 25 March - 552 cases, 35 deaths = 6.34%.  If we include recovered cases - 572 to 35 = 6.12%.

Clearly I'm missing something as I don't get anywhere near 66%!

Maybe you're taking deaths (35) against recoveries (20) to get 66%? If so, I'd imagine the stats have no meaning as the sample size here is too small.

Edited by hk blues

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53 minutes ago, Tommy T. said:

Hi Man... I am not as sanguine as you about those who recovered are releasable and non-contagious.

The reason I say that is because we don't know if the "formerly" ill were tested again following their "recoveries." There are still so many unknowns about this. And remember, too, that some who have had it have either relapsed or become re-infected at a later time. I am sorry that I cannot quote the source right now, but I did read that - and NOT on FaceBook.

I think we all know that the stats cannot be considered as truly accurate for a whole host of reasons but they do give an indication - this is useful to compare and contrast different areas and highlight trends.

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4 hours ago, Marvin Boggs said:

Really Dave?  I just checked the reported numbers on the WHO site and the death rate is 4.3%  It seems like you are trying to spread fear, but feel free to correct me if you think I'm wrong.  If you don't want to include unrecovered cases in your math that is up to you, but its highly misleading.  

 

He said in his post he was talking about 'concluded cases'. Sounds like he was trying to make the same point you have been though anyway, such a high mortality rates means the Philippines probably has a lot more cases.

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3 minutes ago, fillipino_wannabe said:

He said in his post he was talking about 'concluded cases'. Sounds like he was trying to make the same point you have been though anyway, such a high mortality rates means the Philippines probably has a lot more cases.

I think he was - after posting my comment I did a quick calc. and was able to get the 66% by using the recovered cases and death cases only.  I think the point that Dave may have been making was that the Philippines is likely to have less people recover than the average.  That is also one reason to not assume too much about infection rates and mortality rates - they may not correlate as much as we imagine.  

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We are are hearing of how many people have been diagnosed with the virus or have died.

But I must say, certainly here in UK, I have not heard any figures for those who have recovered. :89:

Just a thought :morning1:

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26 minutes ago, Kuya John said:

We are are hearing of how many people have been diagnosed with the virus or have died.

But I must say, certainly here in UK, I have not heard any figures for those who have recovered. :89:

Just a thought :morning1:

Cases - 8,077

Deaths - 422

Recovered - 135

 

 

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Just to throw the cat amongst the pigeons,  now that some of the better hospitals in Manila are closing their doors to new patients how long will it be before they start transferring people to provincial hospitals? 

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4 minutes ago, Snowy79 said:

Just to throw the cat amongst the pigeons,  now that some of the better hospitals in Manila are closing their doors to new patients how long will it be before they start transferring people to provincial hospitals? 

I guess it will be like the UK, and probably other countries, they will start to prioritise who stays and who gets kicked out.  Only difference here is that ability to pay will be one of the criteria. 

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1 hour ago, hk blues said:

Cases - 8,077

Deaths - 422

Recovered - 135

 

 

Well we won't go into percentages :tiphat:

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Latest from UK 

Prince of Wales ( prince Charles) has the.virus hes 71 and being reported as having a mild case 

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