Coronavirus Information Charts.

[earthdome]

On 4/30/2020 at 10:22 PM, GeoffH said:

He has used charts at various times from the web site Our World in Data and I thought that I'd post a few here which I believe show examples of what the virus is doing in various countries (including the Philippines, the USA, Great Britain Australia and a few others for comparison).  I'm not going to make comments about specific countries and what they're doing except to say 'look at the graphs'.

One problem with the charts, unless I missed it, these are gross numbers and have not been normalized per capita. So the USA pops out in these charts because it is the third most populous country.

[scott h]

4 hours ago, earthdome said:

these are gross numbers and have not been normalized per capita

Earth, I have been thinking along the same lines or awhile now. The numbers don't take into account overall age and health of population. Not only that they just show "infected" and "dead". I want to know how many were actually hospitalized vs. how many tested positive and were just sent home and told to watch Netflix for two weeks 

[Mike J]

4 hours ago, earthdome said:

One problem with the charts, unless I missed it, these are gross numbers and have not been normalized per capita. So the USA pops out in these charts because it is the third most populous country.

As the third most populous country it has approximately 4.4 percents of the world's population, 33 percent of the cases, and 28 percent of the deaths.   Those numbers alone  are scary and say the US has done poorly.  Percentages are also approximate.  

Edited May 4, 2020 by Mike J

[Mike J]

9 minutes ago, scott h said:

Earth, I have been thinking along the same lines or awhile now. The numbers don't take into account overall age and health of population. Not only that they just show "infected" and "dead". I want to know how many were actually hospitalized vs. how many tested positive and were just sent home and told to watch Netflix for two weeks 

Go to John Hopkins corona site and click on the "Incidence Tab".  Most of the world is shown by country, but the US is by state.  Also the hospitalization and testing rates, but only shown for the US.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[RBM]

2 hours ago, scott h said:

Earth, I have been thinking along the same lines or awhile now. The numbers don't take into account overall age and health of population. Not only that they just show "infected" and "dead". I want to know how many were actually hospitalized vs. how many tested positive and were just sent home and told to watch Netflix for two weeks 

Further to this i have as yet failed to find comparable deaths over a comparable time, this would be interesting.

[GeoffH]

7 hours ago, earthdome said:

One problem with the charts, unless I missed it, these are gross numbers and have not been normalized per capita. So the USA pops out in these charts because it is the third most populous country.

These maps show the world and represent figures adjusted to show rates per million of population.

 

[earthdome]

15 hours ago, Mike J said:

As the third most populous country it has approximately 4.4 percents of the world's population, 33 percent of the cases, and 28 percent of the deaths.   Those numbers alone  are scary and say the US has done poorly.  Percentages are also approximate.  

In computer programming there is a saying "Garbage in Garbage out". That data is based on self reporting and is highly dependent on the rate of testing and truthful reporting. That makes it very difficult to reach any conclusions when you have such a poor data set. Here is an article which considers what all the variables are impacting the data: https://reason.com/2020/05/04/8-possible-reasons-for-the-huge-international-differences-in-covid-19-deaths/

[GeoffH]

9 hours ago, earthdome said:

That data is based on self reporting and is highly dependent on the rate of testing and truthful reporting. That makes it very difficult to reach any conclusions when you have such a poor data set. 

It's true that data from third world countries is very poor but that is much less true of first world countries which tend to have similar types of health systems.

It therefore is reasonable IMO to compare data between similar first world countries and comparing the US and the UK on a per head of population basis they're not doing well in either case rates or mortality rates (which makes me sad, the last thing I want is for two of the most powerful democracies in the world to be damaged in this way but that doesn't change the facts).

[Snowy79]

I think we can safely say everything is pure speculation at this moment in time.  It's going to be a long time before we have enough data to make any assumptions and even then I'm pretty certain a lot of that data will be hit and miss.

Chances are there is going to a few key factors that determine who lives and who dies and it may not be down to who has the best health care or systems in place.  Preliminary evidence shows that if you are older, overweight and have underlying health issues you are in the bracket to meet your maker and great medical treament will still only save a few that wouldn't have survived without intervention.

I'm guessing if you are young, healthy and take the necessary precautions, hand washing, not touching your mouth or eyes etc you should have very little to fear.  This virus seams to act like an allergy, flaring up underlying conditions.

[Jollygoodfellow]

15 hours ago, Snowy79 said:

Preliminary evidence shows that if you are older, overweight and have underlying health issues you are in the bracket to meet your maker and great medical treament will still only save a few that wouldn't have survived without intervention.

This true for every flu or virus that comes out every year. Im not downplaying the Corona but the bracket of people who more likely will not survive a virus is the same.