What will be the end game?

[scott h]

While taking my daily walk today I got to thinking. What will be the end game to this mess?

The UK has jabbed about 76% of their population and have pretty much opened up, but they still almot 30k new cases and 93 deaths today (if I am reading the national web site right). I suppose with the NHS they can handle new cases.

The US has fully jabbed 51% (and knowing how stubborn Yanks can be I will be surprised if it ever hits 70%) are trying to open up but are getting hit by what CNN likes to call a "surge of the unvaccinated" with 100k new cases yesterday (if I read it right)

The Phil is at about 20% and we know what is happening now and the state of the Health care system.

But what is the end game? As we see more and more "break through" cases do we ever reach the point of an acceptable amount of infections? We all know that the Jabs only offer "protection" not immunity, so at the world still sees infections will our leaders keep trying to impose their will on the populations or adopt a policy of "acceptable losses".

 

 

[Snowy79]

The increasing concensus from some experts is herd immunity has evaded us. Due to the nature of this virus it looks like any stimulated immunity is limited to the individual.  Some retaining it longer than others and the way it is rolling out here by the time those most at risk are all vaccinated some will have lost their immunity. 

Coupled with more resistant strains we are already seeing lots of break through cases and just today they have detected another strain, the Lambda variant. Sit back and fasten your seat belts for what this will mean but I'm guessing something to do with more lockdowns.  

[GeoffH]

The break through cases in the fully vaccinated are mostly not serious and aren't resulting in large numbers of hospitalizations or deaths (and mostly in the immune compromised and very elderly).  If countries can get vaccination rates up over 50% fully vaccinated then I suspect most will open up on the basis that basically everyone who wants a vaccine will have had a chance to get vaccinated and if people don't want to well... that's their choice.

So the 'end game' is to get people who want to be vaccinated... vaccinated.

Me I chose to be vaccinated and I'll be getting a booster shot once they become available.. why?  Well look at this chart and maybe you'll see.

 

 

Edited August 15, 2021 by GeoffH

[earthdome]

Here is a chart showing excess deaths, that is, the number of deaths occurring from all causes which is greater than what would be expected. The chart has the US, Canada, Australia and the Philippines.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?country=USA~PHL~AUS~CAN

 

As you can see for the last few months the excess deaths in the US are down just a bit above normal. Interesting, the national media used to report daily a graph of COVID deaths, but stopped doing so months ago and now only report the number of cases.

[Old55]

2 hours ago, earthdome said:

Here is a chart showing excess deaths, that is, the number of deaths occurring from all causes which is greater than what would be expected. The chart has the US, Canada, Australia and the Philippines.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores?country=USA~PHL~AUS~CAN

 

As you can see for the last few months the excess deaths in the US are down just a bit above normal. Interesting, the national media used to report daily a graph of COVID deaths, but stopped doing so months ago and now only report the number of cases.

This is a fact. 

 

 

[Dave Hounddriver]

The end game will be:  Vaccinations and boosters will be mandated by law.  Most people will get them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

And now the precedents to prove my theory:

Seat belt use will be mandated by law.  Most people will use them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

Motorcycle helmets will be mandated by law.  Most people will get them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

Speed limits will be mandated by law.  Most people will follow them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

Non smoking and non recreational drug use will be mandated by law.  Most people will stop using them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

I could go on but you get the point.

[BrettGC]

6 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

The end game will be:  Vaccinations and boosters will be mandated by law.  Most people will get them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

And now the precedents to prove my theory:

Seat belt use will be mandated by law.  Most people will use them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

Motorcycle helmets will be mandated by law.  Most people will get them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

Speed limits will be mandated by law.  Most people will follow them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

Non smoking and non recreational drug use will be mandated by law.  Most people will stop using them as they will not want the fines and other consequences. People will still be hospitalized and/or die.  Life will go on.  People will forget about the big debates about whether they should or should not do what they are told.

I could go on but you get the point.

One way It can also be framed as the strategy of deferral:

 "A way to get an unpopular decision to accept is to present it as ′′ painful and necessary ", gaining public acceptance, in the moment, for future application. It is easier to accept a future sacrifice than an immediate sacrifice. First, because effort isn't that taken immediately. Second, because the public, the mass, always tends to naively hope that ′′ everything will be better tomorrow ′′ and that the required sacrifice could be avoided. This gives the audience more time to get used to the idea of change and accept it resigned when the time comes."

Dave, in all the instances you cited, in Australia at least, we the public were given up to 12 months notice.  It's a strategy where in our minds, by the time it happens, it's become normalized before it's actually enacted.  

[Freebie]

16 hours ago, Snowy79 said:

but I'm guessing something to do with more lockdowns.  

I think you are 100% correct. Seems no one has any original thoughts other than " sir we have a  problem = lockdown."

They did have one guy who provided some creative thoughts, Dr Tony Leachon, but he was fired because he dared to speak up and state that the current govt strategy wasnt effective.... he didnt call them donkeys, but.........

[GeoffH]

10 hours ago, earthdome said:

As you can see for the last few months the excess deaths in the US are down just a bit above normal.

Vaccination rates in the US are fairly high (except for a few red states where excess deaths remain higher than the US average).

[Jollygoodfellow]

The end game

Well Spanish flu never lasted forever. SARs I guess changed to the current covid. Swine flu, bird flu are not heard of much. AIDs seems like years ago and not much of a topic anymore.West African Ebola epidemic lasted 2 years so personally I dont think anything last forever including that chocolate cream filled cake I baked tonight.