Back to Baguio!

[earthdome]

4 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

Some housing markets are falling already.  San Antonio is just getting started.  I get daily property updates for Stone Oak and Alamo ranch.  Lots of "price reduced" coming in now.

Economic sources I follow think this housing downturn will be different than the 2008 bust because different economic factors are involved. The 2008 bust was primarily due to the big mess created by sub-prime mortgages and the economic downturn was mostly driven by the housing and home mortgage markets. This economic downturn is a completely different beast being driven by monetary inflation over the last 2-3 years which has now triggered price inflation. The Fed increasing their interest rate will increase home mortgage rates which will cool down the real estate market but not result in a dramatic bust in home prices.

[OnMyWay]

On 7/9/2022 at 8:31 PM, earthdome said:

Economic sources I follow think this housing downturn will be different than the 2008 bust because different economic factors are involved. The 2008 bust was primarily due to the big mess created by sub-prime mortgages and the economic downturn was mostly driven by the housing and home mortgage markets. This economic downturn is a completely different beast being driven by monetary inflation over the last 2-3 years which has now triggered price inflation. The Fed increasing their interest rate will increase home mortgage rates which will cool down the real estate market but not result in a dramatic bust in home prices.

I guess the definition of "bust" is key.  I think the best case scenario is that housing prices return to their historical mean, which is a lot less than now, in a slower manner.  Crashing would be busting through that mean quickly.

Look at the Case Schiller housing index charts.  Not sustainable.  In some states, recent buyers are going to have a heart attack when they see their first property tax bill.

[earthdome]

21 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

I guess the definition of "bust" is key.  I think the best case scenario is that housing prices return to their historical mean, which is a lot less than now, in a slower manner.  Crashing would be busting through that mean quickly.

Look at the Case Schiller housing index charts.  Not sustainable.  In some states, recent buyers are going to have a heart attack when they see their first property tax bill.

Right, and the magnitude of price changes will be very dependent upon the individual market.