China's Influence On The Philippines

[OnMyWay]

There have been a lot of topics involving China and the perception of China, as they relate to the Philippines.  Recently, I became aware of some details on a China / Philippines project, and I thought I would share.  This theme has to do with how China exerts power over poor countries.

There is a plan to build a freight railway from Clark to Subic Bay.  It would link up with the North / South freight railway being built, and link Subic container port to the Manila container port.  Some of the key objectives are to keep truck traffic down and reduce congestion at the Manila port.  For the most part, Subic residents and locators (businesses) are supportive of the concept.

The proposed route has been published for quite some time.  Probably 18-24 months.  It is 71 km total.  There is one long tunnel the begins on the East side of Tipo and exits in the Freeport.  This runs under a portion of my Kalayaan neighborhood and I think I had a topic about that before.  There is another short tunnel that passes under Cubi point.  Based on this routing, feasibility and engineering studies have been done over the last 2 years and were done by contracted companies.  The final construction bids are scheduled to be decided upon next month, October. 

The cost is supposed to be p50 billion upwards.  15% is coming from the Philippines budget and 85% by ODA loans from China.  ODA means Official Development Assistance.

The project is run by BCDA, Bases Conversion and Development Authority.  As part of the planning, consultations with impacted parties are held.  For Subic Bay Freeport residents and locators, the first one was held in August, with a small audience.  The second one was held last week, with everybody invited to the Google Meeting.  I think around 50-60 people joined the call, scheduled for 2 hours.  I made it for about 1 hour and 15, and did not think much more was going to be accomplished, the way it was going.  However, it ended up lasting over 6 hours!  Many issues were raised, but few questions were answered.  I got a copy of the recording and it took me a few days to get through.

Here are some of the key takeaways:

• In the bidding documents, it said the bidding construction company must be Filipino controlled, 60%.
• It was revealed that the bidding companies have already been cut down to 3 Chinese companies, not Filipino controlled. 
• Some documents say that the workforce has to be at least 60% Filipino, and they said that the entire workforce is expected to be around 5000.
• Nobody knows where these workers will live, if they are not local.  The project team said "they will just find someplace to live".   Reminds the residents of the POGO issues we have here.
• The alignment will take it over the protected mangroves.  No environmental permits have been issued.
• The long tunnel will exit right next to my daughter’s school.  The school has already said they would probably not be able to have the school there. They have been investing millions upgrading the facilities.
• The short tunnel under Cubi point is an area that is unstable and has had several major landslides in the past few years.  On top of that area are some of the most expensive homes in Subic, overlooking the bay.
• The route goes right next to the runways of the airport and probably will reduce the usable runway length.
• The route goes right next to a large fuel tank farm.
• One of the key cargoes to be carried on the trains is fuel.
• Subic Water was on the call and asked what studies have been done to determine the impact on the water tables that serve our area.  No answers.
• Someone said one or two of the shortlisted companies have been banned in other countries for numerous violations.

So, of course, the question everyone asks is, “Can the route be changed?”.  To this, the head guy from BCDA says Yes, the route can be changed.  That is why we have these consultations.

Next logical question, how can the bids be submitted next month if the route can change?  They were insistent that the bids will go forward as scheduled and the lowest bid will be selected next month.  Their explanation was that the bids are for a “turnkey project”.  The winning bidder will do all the design and construction, based on the requirements.

How is it in the realm of logical possibility that a company can make a fair and profitable bid without knowing the final route?  The route involves mountains, tunnels, protected areas and possible ocean crossing.

My speculation is that this is the only way.  Let’s assume a fair and profitable bid on the current route is 50 billion.  As a bidder, you are told the route can be changed and you must bid next month.  The only bid you can make is one with a huge contingency for changes.  Let’s say that is 70 billion.

You have already shortlisted 3 Chinese bidders, so you have effectively thrown away competitive bidding.  Who controls every Chinese company?  CCP.  So who controls the winning bid?  CCP.  It could go like this.  CCP says company A will get the bid, by bidding 65 billion.  Companies B & C will bid higher.

There were a lot of smart people on this call, both Filipinos and Expats, many with engineering and even rail experience.  Several serious environmentalists too.  All are dumbfounded that the project has moved forward so far and bidding “must be done” next month, when it appears to be a clusterf*ck.

Another key question asked by everyone is, “Is this meeting just for show?  Is any feedback going to be used?  Can the route be changed?  They insisted it is not just for show, but everything else they say points to otherwise.

There is another meeting scheduled in about 3 weeks and they are supposed to answer all the unanswered questions.  I will update when I get more info.

The bottom line is, this appears to be another project that will allow China to have huge control over Philippine infrastructure, just as they have done in other countries.

[Dave Hounddriver]

Your concerns are all warranted.  Powerful countries overwhelm smaller countries to their own benefit all the time.  I wonder how locals felt when the Panama canal was being built, for example.

[Tommy T.]

5 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

All are dumbfounded that the project has moved forward so far and bidding “must be done” next month, when it appears to be a clusterf*ck.

Another key question asked by everyone is, “Is this meeting just for show?  Is any feedback going to be used?  Can the route be changed?  They insisted it is not just for show, but everything else they say points to otherwise.

Of course, this is only opinion... but this entire project looks totally dead on arrival. While the idea of providing rail service is admirable, the routing and planning look, to me, to be a disaster in the making - in so many ways....

[OnMyWay]

2 hours ago, Tommy T. said:

Of course, this is only opinion... but this entire project looks totally dead on arrival. While the idea of providing rail service is admirable, the routing and planning look, to me, to be a disaster in the making - in so many ways....

That is how it would appear to rational people, but the project team has blinders on, and it is full speed ahead.

I think what will happen in the near term is the environmentalists will get an injunction and have it stopped for a while.

[RBM]

One only has to look at the past results on different small economies of Chinese controlled loans. Sri Lanka, Maldives springs to mind.

The obstacles as outlined by the OP will probable not be unsurpassable   given the amount involved and the way business is done here. lets hope this does not proceed as outlined.

[Gas]

7 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

 

So, of course, the question everyone asks is, “Can the route be changed?”.  To this, the head guy from BCDA says Yes, the route can be changed.  That is why we have these consultations.

So where would the route go if it was changed?

Maybe a less affluent area??? 

 

 

 

[Tommy T.]

Actually OMW... I think it might be best to move this topic and change it to read "Chinese Influence on the World?"

I am dismayed to see the Chinese as they encroach upon virtually every land and sea and island area within  5,000 miles or more of their shores... They are showing much more colonization tendencies and actions than even the Spanish, Portuguese, Italians, British, French and Americans from the past. And they are very aggressive about all this... They always respond to complaints that they are fine and in the right and that the others - whoever they may be - are in the wrong and infringing upon their "rights." Quite frankly, I am a bit afraid about all this... The Chinese seem hell-bent on taking over the world, it appears to me...

[Freebie]

Taiwans call to arms for countries to object to Chinas rise and pernicious way in it makes its claims to be a world leader ( Xinjiang camps and forced sterilisations / lack of any basic human right in China/ HK/ the swarm of 300 chinese fishing boats off Galapagos that has "taken" all the squid that fur seals eat etc etc ) is timely and I hope that however US votes, its increasing links with Taiwan continue.

China must be stopped as militarily small countries like Philippines will certainly be taken over. Chinas continued theft of intellectual property makes it a nations of thieves and liars. And yet for some reason beyond me, the Chinese people continue to be "patriotic".

 

PS for fun, have a look at the numerous China air rage videos on youtube. Then you see their heathen nature at its best/worst.

And yes, there will be those here who say other countries have behaved as badly before, and other such niceties and obfuscations. .

However we, all of us  are living here and now and have to individually and collectively deal with the repercussions of Chinas grab and get policies.

[OnMyWay]

3 hours ago, Gas said:

So where would the route go if it was changed?

Maybe a less affluent area??? 

For the most part, the route objections are not about affluent areas.  The biggest objection is about the protected mangroves.  However, I did forget to mention a few things.

Questions were asked about road crossings.  If there are street level road crossings, the trains are required to blow their extremely loud horns, near schools and residential areas.  No specific answers but they seem to indicate there would be street level crossings, which is also a traffic problem.

The proposal is not just to have the rails cross the mangroves, they want the main terminal to be there!

Many people said the route should be changed to go over the bay direct to the container terminal, but I could not see how that would be done without closing some port facilities and interfering with shipping.

Look at this map.  It is the best I could find for now.  They are supposed to give us some better ones.  The proposed route through the freeport is the thin green line.  From left to right...

• The big green circle top left is the current container terminal.
• The upper blue arrow points to the end of the airport runways and airport official say having the train pass there will change the allowed flight pattern.  This never came up in the past 2 years???
• The lower blue arrow points to the tank farm of concern, built in the last 5 years, I think.
• The red circle on the left is where the small tunnel will pass under the Cubi landslide prone area, with the expensive homes on top.
• The red box in the middle is the proposed terminal, in the mangroves.
• The orange thick line is where the would have to re-route over water, roughly.
• The red arrow on the right is where the long tunnel would emerge and those buildings there are my daughter's school and the Holiday Villas condo resort.
• The yellow arrow points up the hill where my neighborhood is.  The long tunnel runs under two streets of an outcrop of my neighborhood, not near my house.

 

Edited September 18, 2020 by OnMyWay