Typhoon Bopha

[Dougbert]

This is not looking so good. I hope it turns north soon, otherwise it will smack right into the Phils. Current track takes it into the NE tip of Mindanao and on into the Visayas.

http://28storms.com/typhoon/

[earthdome]

Thanks for posting this. Looks like I will arrive in Manila a few days after this Typhoon.

[MikeB]

Yes, thanks for posting. Appreciated.

[Mike S]

According to the http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ ....... the damn thing is coming right over top of Cebu City ..... he is a picture from that site ..... better batten down the hatches matey cause there she blows ..... make sure you have water saved up to flush the toilet and wash your foots etc. ....... candles or emergency lights .... if we have a power outage there is no telling when it will get turned back on ...... like a good boy scout ...... BE PREPARED ....... :thumbsup: ..... :cheersty:

[Call me bubba]

here is a more detailed info on the storm

again thanks for the topic start

TYPHOON BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 015

Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 01 Dec 2012

Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Saturday 01 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha rapidly gaining strength as it moves closer to the Republic of Palau...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday.

Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines (especially Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region) should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5 am today, the round eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over Central Micronesia...about 935 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,820 km east-southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental...currently moving west to west-northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of the Republic of Palau.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers. Bopha is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Bopha is expected to move generally west-northwest for the next 24 to 48 hours with some fluctuations in its forward speed...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period.

On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to approach Western Micronesia on Sunday morning...passing south of Yap and Ulithi Islands on Sunday morning...and over or very near Palau Islands on Monday early morning, as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

By Tuesday morning, Bopha will be approaching the coast of Surigao Provinces.

Bopha will continue gaining strength during the next 48 hours...may be near Super Typhoon strength on Monday morning.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Becomes a powerful Category 4 Typhoon as it approaches the Republic of Palau...about 400 km south of Colonia, Yap Is., Federated State of Micronesia (FSM) [5AM DEC 02: 5.9N 138.0E @ 220kph].

MONDAY MORNING: At near-Super Typhoon strength as it moves away from the Republic of Palau...enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 110 km west of Koror, Republic of Palau [5AM DEC 03: 7.1N 133.5E @ 230kph].

TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it approaches the coast of Surigao Provinces...about 396 km east-southeast of Surigao City, PH [5AM DEC 04: 8.6N 128.9E @ 205kph].

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/update.html

http://www.goes.noaa.../SHGMSVSW.JPG�� current photo of the storm

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

Edited December 1, 2012 by Pittman apartments Sgn

[Dougbert]

Yeah, this looks bad. My GF is on the southwest side of Mactan only maybe 8-10 feet above sea level. The place is new development--concrete construction with metal roofs. I was just there a week ago and we walked around where they are building the next phase. The walls are cast-in-place with rebar. Only a small section in the upper gable filled with blocks--the rest is solid. I hope the roof stays on and the windows don't blow out. Geez. Now I'm pretty worried.

[Thomas]

8-10 feet above sea level.

Seem risky. Prediction say 11 feet high waves. I hope it's some in cover for the wave direction, so it isn't hit direct.

[Call me bubba]

update 6pm 1 dec

TYPHOON BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 017

Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 01 Dec 2012

Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 02 Dec 2012

Powerful Typhoon Bopha maintains its strength and track as it dangerously moves closer to Palau...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Sunday evening or early Monday morning.

Residents and visitors along Western Micronesia and the Philippines (particularly the Republic of Palau, Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region) should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over Central Micronesia...about 700 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or

1,590 km east-southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of the Republic of Palau.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 215 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 195 kilometers.

Bopha is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving generally west-northwest for the next 24 to 48 hours with a slight increase in its forward speed...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to approach Western Micronesia, passing south of Yap and Ulithi Islands on Sunday morning...and over or very near Palau Islands by early morning Monday at approximately 2:00 am Philippine Time. By Tuesday afternoon, Bopha will be just along Siargao Islands, very near Surigao City-Surigao Del Norte Area.

Bopha will continue gaining strength during the next 24 to 36 hours...and could become a Super Typhoon briefly early Monday morning. A decrease in its strength is forecast beginning Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon as Bopha moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures and interaction with the land mass of Mindanao and the Visayas.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to near Super Typhoon status as it approaches the Republic of Palau...about 213 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau [5PM DEC 02: 6.6N 136.3E @ 230kph].

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly while moving away from the Republic of Palau...towards Surigao Provinces...about 529 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [5PM DEC 03: 8.0N 131.1E @ 230kph].

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it passes very near Siargao Island and Surigao Del Norte...about 59 km east-southeast of Surigao City, PH [5PM DEC 04: 9.6N 126.0E @ 205kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

28-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).

EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.

OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands

24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat December 01, 2012

Class/Name: TY Bopha (26W)

Location of Eye: 5.3� N Lat 140.5� E Lon

Distance 1: 537 km (SSE) from Colonia, Yap

Distance 2: 610 km (E) from the PAR

Distance 3: 700 km (ESE) from Koror, Palau

Distance 4: 1,590 km (ESE) from Mati City, PH

Distance 5: 1,600 km (ESE) from Bislig City, PH

Distance 6: 1,727 km (ESE) from Surigao City, PH

Distance 7: 1,830 km (SE) from Tacloban City, PH

Distance 8: 1,990 km (SE) from Bicol Region, PH

[Call me bubba]

here is a another link of this storm.

listed below is the latest track provided by typhoon2000.com.ph

3dec 1145am update

TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 021

Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012

Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) no longer super as it moves quickly westward...now threatens Surigao and Agusan Provinces. The possible landfall area is along the Bislig-Hinatuan Area on Tuesday morning.

Important Note: Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is almost three times the strength of Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) which crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011. Please take all precautionary measures on this dangerous cyclone.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6 am today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over the Philippine Sea...about 260 km west-southwest of Koror, Palau or 670 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur...currently moving west with a forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Surigao Del Sur.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 215 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Bopha is expected to turn west-northwest track for the next 24 to 48 hours with a decrease in its forward speed. After 48 hours, its track will shift to the northwest..

On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to make landfall in between Bislig City and the town of Hinatuan on Tuesday morning (approx. 7-8 am Manila Time)...and should cross Surigao Del Sur and Misamis Oriental Tuesday morning until the afternoon,

passing more or less 50 km north of Cagayan De Oro City between 4-6pm.

By Tuesday evening, Bopha should emerge over the Bohol Sea and then cross Southern Negros passing very close to Dumaguete City between 7-8pm.

The typhoon will traverse Sulu Sea Wednesday morning...and may pass very close to El Nido, Palawan Wednesday evening.

Bopha will continue to weaken throughout the forecast period due to lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures along the Philippine Sea and the effects of land interaction.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Off the coast of Surigao Del Sur...prepares to make landfall...about 45 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur...weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon [6AM DEC 04: 8.1N 126.7E @ 195kph].

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over Sulu Sea...about 117 km southwest of Iloilo City...weakens to Category 1 [6AM DEC 05: 10.0N 121.8E @ 130kph].

THURSDAY MORNING: Just barely a Typhoon as it moves NW across the West Philippine Sea...about 93 km northwest of El Nido, Palawan [6AM DEC 06: 11.9N 119.1E @ 120kph].

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon December 03, 2012

Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)

Location of Eye: 6.7º N Lat 132.2º E Lon

Distance 1: 260 km (WSW) away from Koror, Palau

Distance 2: 663 km (E) from Mati City

Distance 3: 670 km (ESE) from Bislig City

Distance 4: 730 km (ESE) from Metro Davao

Distance 5: 777 km (ESE) from Butuan City

Distance 6: 794 km (SE) from Siargao Island

Distance 7: 809 km (ESE) from Malaybalay City

Distance 8: 814 km (SE) from Surigao City

Distance 9: 860 km (ESE) from Cagayan De Oro City

Distance 10: 870 km (ESE) from Camiguin Island

Distance 11: 898 km (ESE) from Iligan City

Distance 12: 995 km (SE) from Metro Cebu

Edited December 3, 2012 by Pittman apartments Sgn

[Call me bubba]

WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 022

Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012

Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) a little weaker as it gained more speed westward closer to Eastern Mindanao...endangers Caraga Region. The possible landfall area is just to the south of Bislig City on Tuesday morning.

Important Note: Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is almost three times the strength of Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) which crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011.

Please take all precautionary measures on this dangerous cyclone

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12 noon today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over the Philippine Sea...about 506 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 563 km east-southeast of Metro Davao...currently moving westward with a forward speed of 30 km/hr in the general direction of Caraga Region.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 205 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers.

Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Mon December 03, 2012

Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)

Location of Eye: 6.9º N Lat 130.7º E Lon

Distance 1: 497 km (E) from Mati City

Distance 2: 506 km (ESE) from Bislig City

Distance 3: 563 km (ESE) from Metro Davao

Distance 4: 614 km (ESE) from Butuan City

Distance 5: 632 km (SE) from Siargao Island

Distance 6: 642 km (ESE) from Malaybalay City

Distance 7: 657 km (SE) from Surigao City

Distance 8: 695 km (ESE) from Cagayan De Oro City

Distance 9: 708 km (ESE) from Camiguin Island

Distance 10: 731 km (ESE) from Iligan City

Distance 11: 816 km (SE) from Tagbilaran City

Distance 12: 838 km (SE) from Metro Cebu

MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph near the center

Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3

Present Movement: West @ 30 kph

Towards: Caraga Region

CPA [ETA] to Surigao Del Sur: Tue Morning [6-7AM PhT]

24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]

Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)

Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]

Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 48 feet

Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9m)