Does Anyone Have Info On This Typhoon

[jon1]

I agree OMW. The new JWTC track is taking directly over Subic at 0800 on Tuesday. Typhoon 2000 is a Philippine meteoriligist site. I have more faith in JWTC but am hoping that they are wrong this time.

[OnMyWay]

I agree OMW. The new JWTC track is taking directly over Subic at 0800 on Tuesday. Typhoon 2000 is a Philippine meteoriligist site. I have more faith in JWTC but am hoping that they are wrong this time.

 

Actually link 3 on the Typhoon 2000 site is the JWTC track and they have one with several tracks.  JWTC is the only one going north.

 

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=HAGUPIT

[Dave Hounddriver]

I have more faith in JWTC but am hoping that they are wrong this time.

 

They were wrong already.  They were the 'experts' predicting the typhoon would swing so far to the north that it would not make landfall in Philippines.  They have already changed that optimistic prediction and will likely change again when the typhoon hits.  My experience with Typhoon Yolanda is that no one predicted the exact overland course until it had actually passed over.  That said, the average of the majority of forecasters created an pretty good picture.  If that holds true for this typhoon then the median forecast is saying:

 

. . . there is some uncertainty in Hagupit's path and forward speed, but in general its center should move in the general direction of Metro Manila. The process is expected to be agonizingly slow -- potentially taking 48-72 hours to move from the eastern Philippines to Metro Manila.

 

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/super-typhoon-hagupit-ruby-philippines-tacloban

[OnMyWay]

It looks like JTWC has adjusted south a bit so they are closer to the other forecast tracks.  They are still the farthest north but now they center track south of Manila bay.

 

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=HAGUPIT

 

Stay safe!

[frosty (chris)]

Just to let you know, Mactan is still clear, rain and winds in Cebu and also having a brown out, sorry can't give you anymore info, local time is 7-18 pm Saturday

[jon1]

Here is a great link that shows the water vapor patterns. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-wv.html It gives you a better idea of the higher steering currents

[Larry45]

There was talk of a preventive brown-out here in Ormoc and the electricity turned off at noon, then a half hour later it was back on.  Still power here, but internet and cable have shut down.  Strange, but this IS the Philippines.  Very windy and rainy now, but looks like it's about to get a bit rougher, according to radar.  

 

 http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/hurricane.tracker/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

[RBM]

Here is a great link that shows the water vapor patterns. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-wv.html It gives you a better idea of the higher steering currents

 

 

Was just about to post same, excellent site 

[Call me bubba]

here is the latest update 745am

 

http://typhoon2000.ph/update.html

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON HAGUPIT (RUBY) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Sunday 07 December 2014
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 07 December 2014

Typhoon HAGUPIT (RUBY) has further weakened as it tracked westward slowly across Samar during the past 6 hours.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions and cooler temperatures across Northern and Central Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible occasional slight to moderate rains along eastern sections of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Northern Quezon. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Southern Luzon and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Hagupit (Ruby).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

• Heavy to Extreme Rains (100 mm or more): Samar Provinces, Leyte, Sorsogon, Albay, Masbate, Romblon, northern portions of Capiz and Iloilo, extreme northern part of Negros Occidental and Northern Cebu - today until Monday (Dec 08). Read more...

• Heavy Rains (100 mm to 150 mm): Southern part of Camarines Sur, Aklan incl. Tablas Is., rest of Capiz and Northern Iloilo, rest of northern part of Negros Occidental, northern portion of Southern Cebu, northern part of Bohol and Southern Leyte - today until Monday (Dec 08). Read more...

• Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Rest of Bicol, Southern Quezon and rest of Visayas incl. Dinagat Is. - today until Monday (Dec 08). Read more...

WINDS

• Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Most parts of Samar Provinces, Sorsogon, Southen Albay, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Islands, Biliran Island, and eastern portions of Romblon - beginning Saturday afternoon (Dec 06) until Sunday afternoon (Dec 07). Read more...

• Tropical Storm to Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Albay, Southern Camarines Sur (Rinconada), Virac, Catanduanes Area, Rest of Romblon, Northern Coastal Areas of Panay, portions of Northern Cebu incl. Bantayan Island, Leyte, and some portions of Southern Samar - beginning Saturday afternoon (Dec 06) until Sunday afternoon (Dec 07). Read more...

• Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Camarines Norte, Rest of Camarines Sur incl. Metro Naga, Eatern portions of Southern Quezon incl. Bondoc Peninsula, Marinduque, some portions of Northern Panay, Rest of Northern Cebu, some portions of Central Cebu incl. Cebu City, Southern Leyte, and some portions of Dinagat Islands - beginning Saturday evening (Dec 06) until Sunday evening (Dec 07). Read more...

STORM SURGE

• Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 2.7-3.9 m (9-12 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern and Southern Bicol Region beginning Saturday afternoon onwards. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Surigao del Norte, Rest of Visayas, Ragay Gulf, Visayan Sea and Eastern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT...Dec 07.

Classification/Name: TY Hagupit (Ruby)
Location: Over Western Samar (near 11.9N 125.0E)
About: 65 km northwest of Borongan City, Eastern Samar...or 80 km north-northeast of Tacloban City, Leyte
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 160 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center outwards): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 865 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 110 km from the Center
Past Movement: West-Southwest @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: West to WNW @ 14 kph
Towards: Western Samar-Samar Sea

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to move slowly west-northwestward throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, TY Hagupit (Ruby) will cross Samar Sea today...then move along Masbate and Romblon through Monday early morning, and shall proceed to cross Northern Mindoro through Monday evening.

TY Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to continue to gradually weaken throughout the outlook period as it interacts with the land masses of the Visayas, Bicol Peninsula and Mindoro...its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 100 kph by Tuesday early morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further as it nears Romblon...about 25 km east-northeast of Romblon [2AM DEC 08: 12.7N 122.5E @ 140kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea...about 65 km west of Lubang Island [2AM DEC 09: 13.8N 119.6E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it turns to the west over the West Philippine Sea...about 410 km west of Lubang Island [2AM DEC 10: 13.7N 116.4E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
 

ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Dec 07, 2014
Location of Eye: Near 11.9º N Lat 125.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km NW of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 110 km NE of Ormoc City, Leyte
Distance 3: 75 km SSE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 165 km SE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 160 km ESE of Masbate City
Distance 6: 270 km SE of Metro Naga
T2K/WP StormTrack (for Public): GIF

 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2014 by Pittman apartments Sgn

[Mike S]

Well it is 12:30pm here in south Bacolod City .... no wind and very little rain .... just sprinkling right now .... we had much worst from Yolanda .... power hasn't even flickered yet ..... maybe to soon to tell but we seem to be OK ... so far ..... :tiphat:

:cheersty: