44.02 Pesos For A Dollar

[OnMyWay]

This article is from Dec. 10th, before the US Fed tapering announcement.  Peso is at 44.50 right now.  What I don't quite understand is that the article says:

 

The Philippine central bank has been spotted intervening to stem the peso's strength, traders said.

 

So apparently they are fine with the current weakness of the peso.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/em-asia-fx-philippine-peso-053612175.html;_ylt=A0SO8oYB2LNSCk8AippXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzbGluM2oyBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMwRjb2xvA2dxMQR2dGlkA1ZJUDMzNV8x

 

By Jongwoo Cheon

SEOUL, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The Philippine peso fell to a

three-month low on Tuesday as offshore funds sold the currency,

while most emerging Asian currencies rose in the wake of a

record high Chinese yuan and signs of improvement in the global

economy.

The peso lost 0.3 percent to 44.285 per dollar,

its weakest since Sept. 9, also on expected dollar demand from

oil importers, traders said.

"The Philippines is still in a very good condition compared

to its neighbours," said a Philippine bank trader in Manila.

"But there are some concerns looming, particularly inflation

and growth due to the recent typhoon. Foreign money may not be

as excited to come in at the moment and may be pulling out

already," the trader said.

Manila shares lost more than 1.2 percent,

underperforming most regional stocks.

That came even as data showed Philippine exports in October

rose 14 percent from a year earlier, compared with 5.1 percent

growth in September.

The peso may ease to this year's low of 44.750 per dollar as

it dropped past chart support at 44.170, its weakest on June 21,

he added.

On Dec. 7, the World Bank said it had lowered its growth

forecasts for the Philippines this year and 2014 following a

strong typhoon in November that devastated its central

provinces, although recovery and reconstruction efforts should

boost economic growth in 2015.

The central bank saw higher annual inflation in coming

months after it hit a nine-month high in November due to the

typhoon damage.

The peso has lost 7.3 percent against the dollar so far this

year, becoming the third worst-performing emerging Asian

currency of the year after the Indonesian rupiah and

the Indian rupee.

Earlier this year, the Philippine currency touched a

five-year high on strong economic fundamentals and ratings

upgrades.

The peso, however, lost ground as such bullish factors had

already been seen priced in and on concerns that the Federal

Reserve may start scaling back its stimulus. The U.S.

bond-buying programme had fuelled inflows to emerging markets.

The Philippine central bank has been spotted intervening to

stem the peso's strength, traders said.

Still, some traders expect the peso to get some reprieve

from increasing remittances inflows, saying that offshore fund

selling may ease.

"They were caught short (in dollar) on fixing demand and

funds are closing their books, I heard," said another senior

Philippine bank trader, adding that the peso may find support

around 44.500 per dollar.

Still, the trader said he would not buy the peso until

offshore funds clear bullish bets on the currency.

[earthdome]

Regardless of why, I hope the fx rate stays here for another week so I can exchange the USD check I deposited 2 weeks ago to pesos at 44.50

[Tukaram (Tim)]

As long as we don't too much inflation... I love the high exchange rate  :tiphat:

[JJReyes]

As a contrarian, I disagree with the analysis by the Korean reporter as to why Philippine currency is down and the implication that it will remain that way. 

 

1. Improvements in the world economy means more overseas jobs for Filipinos that will result in more inflow of foreign exchange.

 

3. The size of the Yolanda disaster means massive spending for reconstruction, a significant amount will be gift money or soft loans from foreign governments. 

 

3. Inflation is a perennial problem for the Philippines, but it has also hit major markets including the United States. The federal government claim of 1.5% is hogwash. At the consumer level, 2013 inflation is at 6% to 7.2%. 

 

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas intervention occurs if they think the exchange rate will go below or above the 40 to 45 range. If it goes above 45, there must be something wrong like massive amounts of money from wealthy Filipinos is fleeing the country. There are no signs of political instability.

 

In the meantime, let everyone enjoy the excellent exchange rate. I am buying pesos today.

Edited December 20, 2013 by JJReyes

[jpbago]

BNN: On the currency front, if you think the Canadian dollar is weak, take a look at the Aussie which is down 5.7% in the past three months versus the U.S. dollar (CAD down 3.5%). Other weak currencies since September include the New Zealand dollar, the Swedish Krona, the Norwegian Krone, and the Yen.

 

America rules!!! Despite all the problems, the US $ has been the way to go.

[OnMyWay]

Regardless of why, I hope the fx rate stays here for another week so I can exchange the USD check I deposited 2 weeks ago to pesos at 44.50

 

Another way to take advantage of the current high rate is to use your US credit card, if you have a good one.  With Christmas upon us and the good exchange rate, I am going to try to make most larger purchases with my Capital One credit card, and pay it in the US with dollars.  Today I made a p8000 purchase and it already posted at C1 for $179.86, which is about 44.48.

 

I'm going to buy a new washer in the next few days and even though I can get a cash discount, it might be worth it to put it on the C1 card at the non-cash higher price.  My pesos that are here now are from dollars converted at lower exchange rates.

[JJReyes]

BNN: On the currency front, if you think the Canadian dollar is weak, take a look at the Aussie which is down 5.7% in the past three months versus the U.S. dollar (CAD down 3.5%). Other weak currencies since September include the New Zealand dollar, the Swedish Krona, the Norwegian Krone, and the Yen.   America rules!!! Despite all the problems, the US $ has been the way to go.

 

I am hoping for a CAD 1.1 to USD 1.0 exchange rate early next year. This will permit me to make a major purchase in Canada at a substantial discount. 

 

Next three weeks are crucial for the USD to PHP exchange rate as large numbers of Filipinos return home for the holidays with pockets filled with money. Now might be a good time to exchange. I have already purchased all my requirements for one month travel.

[earthdome]

Another way to take advantage of the current high rate is to use your US credit card, if you have a good one.  With Christmas upon us and the good exchange rate, I am going to try to make most larger purchases with my Capital One credit card, and pay it in the US with dollars.  Today I made a p8000 purchase and it already posted at C1 for $179.86, which is about 44.48.

 

That is a good strategy. I have also made some large purchases in the last few weeks using my CapitalOne credit card. But only if there are large ticket items you really need that you can use the credit card for.

[OnMyWay]

 

Another way to take advantage of the current high rate is to use your US credit card, if you have a good one.  With Christmas upon us and the good exchange rate, I am going to try to make most larger purchases with my Capital One credit card, and pay it in the US with dollars.  Today I made a p8000 purchase and it already posted at C1 for $179.86, which is about 44.48.

 

That is a good strategy. I have also made some large purchases in the last few weeks using my CapitalOne credit card. But only if there are large ticket items you really need that you can use the credit card for.

 

 

I meant to add, it is a good strategy if you don't have any dollars here to exchange, like my current situation! 

[Tukaram (Tim)]

I need to use my credit cards anyway...  My rating just dropped a little, and the only thing they said was because I had not used any of my cards in a year.