First World Philippines

[afathertobe]

Frankly I don't think the Philippines will change dramatically over the next 10 years. Huge infrastructure projects all over the country would have to be launched, dramatic reforms of the legal system, administration, public infrastructure and so on undertaken - but this just isn't happening. 

The BPO industry can grow for a while until it becomes obsolete due to automation of processes. There's still plenty of space for the real estate industry to grow as long as they remain open for foreign investors and improve investment security. But a real shift to become an industrialised country with a healthy manufacturing sector? I don't think so. 

The same for tourism, it's just not Thailand and I don't think it can be. Even Boracay's infrastructure is nothing short of terrible, the ferries that transport tourists over to the island, the pier, the tuk-tuks, the lack of public touristic infrastructure, the beggars... and that's the most advanced resort in the Phils. So yes, Boracay will have its place in Korean, Chinese tourism, but there are few other hot spots emerging, Palawan and co. are nice but won't see mass tourism any time soon. 

Personally I like Philippines tourism that way, I like to go to friendly, "undiscovered" places with a simple resort and just enjoy the atmosphere, so all that is not really that much of a negative for me. But the Phils lacks the fundamentals to truly boost its tourism and there are few new industries emerging that could lift its masses out of poverty. 

So in conclusion I think the Philippines will remain roughly the same, slightly better infrastructure, quite a bit more populated, a bit more affluent in some areas but more desperate in others. Its fate will be strongly interlinked with other SEA countries, the stronger they grow the more the Phils profits. 

Edited June 3, 2016 by afathertobe

[mogo51]

I have to agree about the infrastructure being behind the mark, in Philippines.  Last year on a trip down western side of Nth Luzon, it was particularly noticeable at areas such as Vigan, Pangasinan. Vigan wonderful Spanish heritage, more than half falling down and needing restitution, Pangasinan the Islands were great, but getting there was a nightmare with inadequate transport, lucky not to break your neck getting onto the boats and then dying of diesel fumes along the way.

What I don't agree with is that there is not enough places in Phils that would attract tourists with the proper infrastructure - it has a lot to offer from what I can see.

[Nephi]

On 3/10/2015 at 4:39 PM, jon1 said:

I think that nothing will change for the lower classes and the rich will get richer. There is no control of infrastructure impediment and it will progressively get worse. 

 

The mentality here does not support the country ever being First World. From the corruption as seen as acceptable to the average person just tossing their litter in the street or watersheds. It would take a huge shift in the public's mindset to ever make any significant changes and "progress". There is no sense of getting things done to a "higher" standard. Without accountability (real standard law enforcement, no corruption, a real functioning justice system, code enforcement, city planning and the public adhering to all of this), nothing will ever change. 

I would agree completely with Jon1 and add this. The change for better that I have see in the 13 years living in these islands could fit inside a thimble. Now with this newly elected president; if he is able to survive long enough to complete his term in office, IMO, he will likely set the country back 75 years or more. As Jon said, too many things would have to change and the general population has not realized that there is real power in numbers and that they can bring about change.They are simply too uneducated, many too low in IQ, and the majority just too passive. The cost of living goes up here but is I think only a victim of would inflation.

Nephi

[robert k]

I agree that the Philippines has a good bit to offer but it's not a prepackaged, turn key operation. It takes work and I think that is a good thing for many. If it were so easy that you could just show up and spend a little cash and have first world infrastructure, it would be standing room only. As it stands, if you want first world infrastructure it's expensive if you can get it at all. To ask for first world infrastructure in an area of exceptional natural beauty, well somebody is already living there, wherever that is and probably knows it's value.

[Hey Steve]

Although this is 2014, I doubt much has changed-as I have not heard of any surge in tourism in the last couple years. Aquino has fallen short of his goals to boost the tourism sector-I think because there's too many holes in the dam and not enough fingers.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/261749/tourism-receipts-of-selected-asian-and-pacific-countries/

[David B]

When I was there, Jan.'16, my wife and I stayed at the Nobu-City of Dreams and the Solaire in Manila, both 5 star hotels, then the Richmonde in Iloilo, 4 stars (Iloilo has no 5 star hotels) and when back in Manila the Belmont, 4 stars.  All of these places had 1st world infrastructure, excellent service, yada yada.  They were also very affordable, good values compared to the US, the Caribbean or the Middle East.  The Richmonde had a restaurant that was a good value, top rate place.  While there, we talked with several other tourists, some Americans.  The experience was memorable and positive.  We traveled a lot while in the PI, day trips, and was amazed at the conditions but not ever feeling in danger or like there wasn't some nice place to sit and relax.  My wife did tell me several times to keep my cash hidden but I never felt like I needed to.  I paid for things anywhere as if I were a free man.

In Coron, Palawan we stayed in a small Inn on the recommendation of a family member.  It was not to our standards but still quite pleasant and affordable.  The hospitality was extraordinary.  In Borocay we stayed at the La Carmela resort.  Upon checking in we were unhappy with our room and upgraded for a nominal fee to a suite with a very large private balcony overlooking the beach and main footpath with all of the shops.  Absolutely wonderful in every way.  To top it off, I had stashed all of my $, pesos, ID and credit cards in the room (I don't use the safes) and left without it.  $700 and thousands of pesos.  We took a hired private van to Iloilo and I didn't realize my mistake until 5 hours after checking out, when we arrived in Iloilo.  I had my wife call the resort, they had already found my stuff and were holding it for me, awaiting that phone call.  My stuff was couriered to me right away.  The USD had to be converted to pesos for the WU transfer, then converted back to USD upon receipt.  I only had to pay those conversion fees but no others.  I was relieved and very impressed, as it had to be a low-level room attendant who found my stuff and turned it in, in-toto.

Yes, the transportation leaves much to be desired, but so does every other country I've visited and here at home traffic is less than optimal.  Yes, there is much poverty, but again, no different than anyplace else.  Yes, ignorance abounds, as much as in the US (have you seen these ignorant Trump supporters).  As a scuba diver, I have traveled the world diving.  Most locales are remote and/or primitive.  That goes with the territory.  Yes, in Mexico, you go 2 blocks from the resort and you are in the ghetto, ditto the Bahamas, same in most US cities.  Go to Philadelphia, Chicago or DC, or pick almost any historical place and you might get knifed, robbed or killed if you stray from the beaten path.  However, with due diligence you are still relatively safe to wander in any of these places if you aren't totally naive about your surroundings.

Overall, I thoroughly enjoyed the PI and will return repeatedly, scouting out our final place to buy real estate and settle in for retirement. 

[Methersgate]

I think that the the political situation has just swung from "stable" to "volatile", and investment decisions will be placed on hold until things get a bit clearer. It might be wise to allow two years, then take another look.

[David B]

Agreed.  Dutuarte is a loose cannon, quite similar to our Trump.  I have already applied to Canada in case Trump is elected.  Yes, two years minimum to see how it goes there.  I have learned recently that Shabu (crystal meth) is a major problem in the PI, led by foreign cartels with the protection of large portions of the police.  No question, shabu is a very serious problem wherever it occurs.  I support Dutuartes efforts to eradicate this issue but fear that anybody he considers an enemy will be branded a drug dealer and swept under his rug.  I am politically active here, in the US, but look forward to a day when I can just ignore it and live my life without care of local politics.  A dictator anywhere is a danger to anybody he may consider an enemy, for whatever reason, therefore I don't support Dutuarte but..... not my problem (right?). 

We have time (a luxury) to see how things fall out.  The PI is a world renown natural wonder.  I only hope that it remains that way considering the projected population growth.  I also hope that they consider their natural resources and potential for eco-tourism as more important than becoming a manufacturing economy.  They can capitalize on their location, resources and natural beauty to clean things up and cater to those who appreciate their natural assets.  Imagine the employment opportunities in simply hiring people to remove the trash (it is everywhere), building public housing and improving transportation and other vital infrastructure.  Maybe most of the population could be employed in these areas alone.  At least the unskilled base.  Eco-tourism, I believe is the untapped windfall that the PI needs.

[OnMyWay]

6 hours ago, David B said:

I have already applied to Canada in case Trump is elected.

That statement tells a lot about you (and by no means am I a Trump supporter).  We are not supposed to discuss home country politics so I will go no further.  And besides, I abandoned my country to live in PH, so who am to say anything about abandoning your country?

[mogo51]

Hmmm was thinking the same thing 'Onmyway'.  I think the 15m plus voters that voted for Duterte would be likely a bit 'pissed' at being labelled as 'peasants'.

Seems like he ha the same view about US where Trump has flogged his opponents!

Maybe the people in Phils and US who are not 5 Star Hotel inhabitants may just be expressing their exasperation over years of getting nothing from the 'other side of town'?

As I see it, they are on a 'hiding to nothing' to give him a try. IMO.