US President Donald Trum-p has become the first US president to set foot on North Korean soil

[GeoffH]

7 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

 Looking into it, they seem to have been testing Russian made missiles in May, which puts things in a whole new light.

I remember reading an article which attempted to analyse what point the NK nuclear program was at.  The writers made a good case that NK had developed fission bombs which were reasonably efficient but had yet to achieve true fusion warheads (there was some evidence for a fusion boosted fission warhead which isn’t quite the same thing evidently).

They made the point that even though NK had a nuclear ‘bomb’ they were still quite some time away from miniaturising the warhead sufficiently to fit into their missiles and also some time away from a larger missile. 

However if they’ve started testing export type Russian missiles then they’ve likely taken a shortcut to being a true nuclear power with a true (albeit fission based) nuclear deterrent.

That might go some way to explaining the recent rethink from the US and as mentioned the acceptence that NK is now in fact a member of the nuclear club.

 

[scott h]

8 hours ago, Gary D said:

So the missile test as late as early May don't count.

The missiles used in May were tactical short range, theater type missiles, so as far as the US was concerned yep they don't count.

[Mike J]

14 hours ago, Dave Hounddriver said:

From the article "In the meantime there has been no nuclear tests, there has been no nuclear missiles"

Good point.  In the past, there was a lot of criticism about NK missile tests.  Since "The Donald" took an interest there have been no missiles.  This is good.

Then again it would be difficult and/or dangerous to do a nuc test if your testing site is collapsing and continued use could contaminate your own country.  

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/26/north-korea-nuclear-test-site-collapse-may-be-out-of-action-china

North Korea’s main nuclear test site has partially collapsed under the stress of multiple explosions, possibly rendering it unsafe for further testing and leaving it vulnerable to radiation leaks, a study by Chinese geologists has shown.

The findings could cast doubt on North Korea’s sincerity in announcing last weekend that it would stop testing nuclear weapons at the site ahead of Friday’s summit between the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, and the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in.

The test site at Punggye-ri, in a mountainous area in North Korea’s north-east, has been the location for all six of the regime’s nuclear tests since 2006.

The findings, by scientists at the University of Science and Technology of China, suggest the partial collapse of the mountain that contains the testing tunnels, as well as the risk of radiation leaks, have potentially rendered the site unusable.

The study was published soon after Kim said his country would stop testing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and close down Punggye-ri before his meeting with Moon just south of the countries’ heavily armed border.

President calls Kim 'very honourable' and says North Korea wants summit as soon as possible
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Nuclear explosions release enormous amounts of heat and energy, and the North’s largest test, in September last year, was believed early on to have rendered the site - a network of tunnels beneath Mount Mantap - unstable.

The Chinese scientists collected collected data for their study following the most powerful of the North’s six nuclear tests, on 3 September.

The controlled explosion, which caused an initial magnitude-6.3 tremor, is believed to have triggered four more earthquakes over the following weeks. The study concluded that eight-and-a-half minutes after the test, there was “a near-vertical on-site collapse towards the nuclear test centre”.

 A satellite image from 13 April 2017 shows North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site
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 A satellite image from 13 April 2017 shows North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site. Photograph: HO/AFP
The Chinese university paper, written by Tian Dongdong, Yao Jiawen and Wen Lianxing, said that was followed by an “earthquake swarm” in similar locations.

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The yield of the bomb was estimated at more than 100 kilotons of TNT, at least 10 times stronger than anything the North had tested previously. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 had a yield of about 15 kilotons.

“In view of the research finding that the North Korea nuclear test site at Mount Mantap has collapsed, it is necessary to continue to monitor any leakage of radioactive materials that may have been caused by the collapse,” the authors said in a summary dated Monday and seen on Wednesday on the university’s website.

The new study is peer-reviewed and has been accepted for publication by the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The Chinese study made sense and was based on well-understood research, said Rowena Lohman, a seismologist at Cornell University who wasn’t part of the work.

A study published last month by the journal, written by a team led by Liu Junqing at the earthquake bureau in Jilin province along the border with North Korea, found similar results from the September explosion. It described the aftershock that followed seconds later as most likely the “rapid destruction of an explosion-generated cracked rock chimney due to cavity collapse”.

Beijing is particularly concerned about the North’s nuclear tests, since the Punggye-ri site is less than 100km (60 miles) from the border with China.

North Korean nuclear tests have caused seismic events in Chinese border towns and cities, forcing evacuations of schools and offices, sparking fears of wind-borne radiation and leading to a backlash among some Chinese against their country’s unpredictable traditional ally. Chinese authorities have said they’ve detected no radiation risk from the tests.

Kune Yull Suh, a professor of nuclear engineering at Seoul National University, warned last year that further tests could threaten to cause a volcanic eruption at Mount Paektu, which is about 100km away.

On Saturday, Kim announced North Korea would close its nuclear testing facility and suspend nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests – a move welcomed by US president Donald President as “big progress” – and which comes ahead of a planned summit between the leaders in late May or early June.

However, Kim stopped short of promising to give up his nuclear weapons, and the missile test ban does not include shorter-range weapons capable of reaching Japan and South Korea.

[Mark Berkowitz]

14 hours ago, Mark Berkowitz said:

Depending on how you look at things, the US may have fully accepted that NK is a now a nuclear power, just as they did back in the 60's when China went nuclear.

I'm unable to explain the hows and whys of POTUS's or the US Government's rationale (if there even is a rationale) for what is going on, but I don't believe (for one minute) that the NK will ever be de-nuclearized, regardless of whatever they promise to do (or not to do). 

Any promise from the NK is as useless as an overpriced diploma from the now 'out-of-business' "Tump University."

The whole situation is just as nebulous and mysterious to me as it is to some of you. 

I just don't ever believe that the NK is going to go backwards with their decades long desire to become a nuclear power.

 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Mark Berkowitz

[scott h]

21 minutes ago, Mark Berkowitz said:

US Government's rationale

Here is my take, as you say NK will not go backwards as a nuke power, the key now is that they do not move forward. President is realist enough to know this. If NK can be held to a "regional" nuke power...…….like Israel……...and does not develop into a "direct" threat to the US, then that is fine. If, and it is a big if, through economic progress in 30 or 40 years the North could be another south korea and economic powerhouse. Again I reference Nixon and china, it took 30 years after the first visit to really turn china around.

But in todays age of instant gratification and 24/7 news cycle few have that type of patience anymore.

 

[Mark Berkowitz]

10 minutes ago, scott h said:

If NK can be held to a "regional" nuke power...…….like Israel

Israel has had nuclear bombs for decades and I tend to think that they are more rational about how to properly use them than NK... JMHO

[scott h]

Just now, Mark Berkowitz said:

more rational

Without a doubt, but as we have both agreed, your not going to put the genie back in the bottle. When all you have is lemons, you make lemonade. 

If, somehow NK can be convinced that there will be no attempt at "regime change" by outside entities then they might start opening up. But looking at the history of korea, that is going to take a lot of convincing. They really got the fuzzy end of the lolly pop during the 19th and 20th century  

[Mark Berkowitz]

12 minutes ago, scott h said:

If, somehow NK can be convinced that there will be no attempt at "regime change" by outside entities then they might start opening up.

That's the BIG IF... and I don't honestly believe that they will fall for anything we can ever tell them (or promise them), since China has their back.

Edited July 1, 2019 by Mark Berkowitz
spelling again

[scott h]

15 minutes ago, Mark Berkowitz said:

China has their back.

China wants the status quo because of the immigration issue. If all the guns and electric fences disappear from the Yalu river the flood of immigrants will make the Southern US border seem like a trickle. That and they get a lot of coal and iron from NK. I don't remember the Name but there is a city in china along the border that has an underground NK economy just like San Diego, Yuma or Brownsville.

There are a lot of utube programs that explain in better detail than I can. 

21 minutes ago, Mark Berkowitz said:

That's the BIG IF

A big IF is a whole lot better than a big war, as long as folks are talking they aren't shooting 

[Mark Berkowitz]

3 minutes ago, scott h said:

A big IF is a whole lot better than a big war, as long as folks are talking they aren't shooting