Coronavirus Information Charts.

[RBM]

On 5/6/2020 at 11:18 PM, Jollygoodfellow said:

This true for every flu or virus that comes out every year. Im not downplaying the Corona but the bracket of people who more likely will not survive a virus is the same.

Yes agree with this line of thought, read yesterday some 1.5 million people die of TB yearly. Perhaps once a vaccine is developed could be the corona will eventually become just another statistic.

[Snowy79]

1 hour ago, Mike J said:

 

Todays chart (worldometers) for the USA shows 3984 cases per one million population.   A death rate of 26% for closed cases (i.e. dead or recovered).  And keep in mind that 3984 per million will continue to rise until the pandemic is over.    The rate of doubling has decreased (approximately 20 days now) with the quarantines in place, but they may increase as the states try to get their economies back on track.   I would not be surprised to see the case rate reach 8000 to 10000 cases per million in the US before this is over.  I admit this is just a guess and I have zero expertise and/or knowledge as an epidemiologist.  If it does reach 10K per million (infection rate of 1%) and the fatality rate improves a bit to say 25%.   There would be 330,000,000 x .01 x .25 = 825,000 deaths.   Even if people stopped getting the virus today, there are still over 1,000,000 active cases in the US.  At a fatality rate of 26% that would be 260,000 more deaths in addition to the 78K already dead and the majority of those are us "old folks".

 

 

I've just done some rough arithmetic from today's reports and obviously only going by known cases but even they can be spurious.  The rough population of the US is 328.2m, of which they have recorded 78,198 deaths, that's still only 0.00024% dying from it.  Considering 182,000 that they know about have recovered and the law of averages say thay many times more have probably been infected and not even noticed it or symptoms were very minor I'm feeling more and more confident that this virus will burn itself out. 

I don't have the break down of the 78,198 by weight, underlying conditions etc but  the latest reports are 4% in their 60's die when contaminated, 8.6% in their 70's.  That makes the odds even better.  Throw in if you're in those age groups and relatively fit I'd say it's not as bad as it's cracked out to be.  

[Mike J]

1 hour ago, Snowy79 said:

I've just done some rough arithmetic from today's reports and obviously only going by known cases but even they can be spurious.  The rough population of the US is 328.2m, of which they have recorded 78,198 deaths, that's still only 0.00024% dying from it.  Considering 182,000 that they know about have recovered and the law of averages say thay many times more have probably been infected and not even noticed it or symptoms were very minor I'm feeling more and more confident that this virus will burn itself out. 

I don't have the break down of the 78,198 by weight, underlying conditions etc but  the latest reports are 4% in their 60's die when contaminated, 8.6% in their 70's.  That makes the odds even better.  Throw in if you're in those age groups and relatively fit I'd say it's not as bad as it's cracked out to be.  

I hope you are correct.  Also the percentage as you have written is technically not correct.  The rate is Point 00024.  The rate if formatted or shown as a percentage would be.Point O24 percent.  I had to write "point" because my editor keeps wanting to move the decimal point to end the sentence and make it a period.   So basically the rate so far is one death in four thousand population. But we are not done so that rate will certainly increase.   At those odds I might risk a dollar to bye a lotto ticket but would not risk my life given a choice.  But I respect your right to accept the risk provided it doesn't increase the risk to others. 

[Tommy T.]

2 minutes ago, Mike J said:

But I respect your right to accept the risk provided it doesn't increase the risk to others. 

That sentence states my feelings exactly.

I really don't care what anyone does - they can go out and mingle, have their covid parties... and ultimately kill themselves? not an issue with me - unless it increases the risks to me and L. Then I have a really big problem with statistics and opening up the various and sundry economies.

[Snowy79]

1 hour ago, Mike J said:

I hope you are correct.  Also the percentage as you have written is technically not correct.  The rate is Point 00024.  The rate if formatted or shown as a percentage would be.Point O24 percent.  I had to write "point" because my editor keeps wanting to move the decimal point to end the sentence and make it a period.   So basically the rate so far is one death in four thousand population. But we are not done so that rate will certainly increase.   At those odds I might risk a dollar to bye a lotto ticket but would not risk my life given a choice.  But I respect your right to accept the risk provided it doesn't increase the risk to others. 

Correct 0.024% which is still greater odds than a lot of the other things that hasn't brought the World to a standstill.  The death rate of those in my previous place through not receiving treatment due to the hospitals fear of contamination is greater.  There comes a time when common sense must prevail.  We are up against accounting like in the linked video.  There's hundreds more like it out there with emminent doctors highlighting that some private hospitals make more from Covid deaths than underlying causes which does muddy the water. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2275581142751504

 

[OnMyWay]

1 hour ago, Snowy79 said:

Correct 0.024% which is still greater odds than a lot of the other things that hasn't brought the World to a standstill.  The death rate of those in my previous place through not receiving treatment due to the hospitals fear of contamination is greater.  There comes a time when common sense must prevail.  We are up against accounting like in the linked video.  There's hundreds more like it out there with emminent doctors highlighting that some private hospitals make more from Covid deaths than underlying causes which does muddy the water. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=2275581142751504

 

Yes, I was going to mention this after your first post.  For several reasons the cause of death is being blamed on Covid a lot more than it should be.  When the largest group of Covid deaths are older patients with pre-existing conditions, this "cause of death" discrepancy could be a big one.  Look at New York.  I think they have almost 5000 nursing home deaths.  Those people were not in a nursing home because they wanted a nice place to chat with their peers!  Typically, they are in their last years of life, Covid or not.

What is the average life expectancy of a nursing home resident?

The average length of stay before death was 13.7 months, while the median was five months. Fifty-three percent of nursing home residents in the study died within six months. Men died after a median stay of three months, while women died after a median stay of eight months.

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/98172/social-support-key-nursing-home-length-stay-death

 

[nor cal mike]

I can certainly understand the “don’t pose a risk to me” sentiment. However I find it unrealistic. Every time I drive my car I pose a potential risk as does every other driver. Every time I fly I pose a potential risk to those on the ground as does everyone else who flies. We don’t ban driving and we don’t ban flying or any of the other things we do on a daily basis that create a potential risk. Those who think the risk is to great can simply isolate themselves at home and avoid the risk they perceive. I personally want to be the one who makes the decision about my life. I don’t want to be shackled by others who want to stay home and Expect me to do as they do. I can read and do enough math to make my own decisions. Again I sincerely respect the opinions of those who prefer to isolate, but don’t expect me to give up my freedom for your fears.

[GeoffH]

2 hours ago, OnMyWay said:

What is the average life expectancy of a nursing home resident?

In the UK I understand one of the defiitions of whether a death is by Covid-19 or with Covid-19 is whether or not that person has more than a month to live.

ie to say a person might be in the large stage of their life but if they have more than an estimated 1 month to live and they die of Covid-19 related complications it is counted as a death by Covid-19.

They have to draw the line somewhere but the real question is "How long should life expectancy be before a death is automatically not counted as by Covid-19"?

I am certain there are mentally fully aware patients who were looking forward to a peaceful passing and who instead have been taken early (albeit a short time early) and who did not die peacefully.

 

[Mike J]

31 minutes ago, nor cal mike said:

I can certainly understand the “don’t pose a risk to me” sentiment. However I find it unrealistic. Every time I drive my car I pose a potential risk as does every other driver. Every time I fly I pose a potential risk to those on the ground as does everyone else who flies. We don’t ban driving and we don’t ban flying or any of the other things we do on a daily basis that create a potential risk. Those who think the risk is to great can simply isolate themselves at home and avoid the risk they perceive. I personally want to be the one who makes the decision about my life. I don’t want to be shackled by others who want to stay home and Expect me to do as they do. I can read and do enough math to make my own decisions. Again I sincerely respect the opinions of those who prefer to isolate, but don’t expect me to give up my freedom for your fears.

When you drive and fly do follow the rules?  How do you feel about those who do not? 

[nor cal mike]

3 minutes ago, Mike J said:

35 minutes ago, nor cal mike said:

 

When you drive and fly do follow the rules?  How do you feel about those who do not?

Your question assumes facts not mentioned in my comment. I did not suggest breaking any rules.