hk blues Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, Tommy T. said: I was just playing with some statistics. I am not making a prediction, but rather envisioning a bit of a nasty scenario. According to some, the infection rate of all people is expected to reach 60-70% in Germany alone. If one extrapolates this and takes it out hypothetically using the higher infection rate of 70% and runs it against the total world population of 7.7 billion (as of April last year), that gives a number of 5.39 billions who "may" become infected. How's that for a scary thought? Of those, maybe take another number of 2- 3 % dying and the total death rate "could" be from 107.8 to 159 million world wide. That would certainly be a big hit. Yep...lots of ifs and several assumptions and I am fully aware (having worked for the US government in the past) that anyone can make a point or prove almost anything with "statistics." But I was just running these thoughts through my thick skull since there wasn't anything interesting on TV and L is still at work... I was a bit shocked to read the news today regarding major event cancellations and school closures in USA, Italy, Manila and elsewhere. It's about time someone took this thing seriously, but it is also a bit too late, in my opinion...just saying... Tom, unless you have been living in a bubble for the past 10 weeks you would know people have been taking this seriously. Taking it seriously may look different to each of us though. Were you a journalist in a previous life by any chance? None of the reports I read about Angela Merkels comments about Corona Virus said 60-70% of Germans are expected to catch the virus. She said up to 70% could catch the virus - it's significantly different from your interpretation. Naughty Tom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, hk blues said: She said up to 70% could catch the virus - it's significantly different from your interpretation. True but planning should be in line with the worst case scenario, not the best case scenario or the most probable scenario in a pandemic situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 24 minutes ago, GeoffH said: True but planning should be in line with the worst case scenario, not the best case scenario or the most probable scenario in a pandemic situation. I have no problem with expecting the worst but hoping for the best but let's not get carried away with doomsday predictions when we know so little at this moment. I think predictions of anything between 108 million and 159 million deaths is a little OTT. IMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevewool Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Well I am carrying on as normal, well sort of normal, did a couple of big shops to make sure we have enough food and cleaning items to last a few weeks , still going out doing my walks into the countryside where you don’t see many folk at all, plus we have just booked a holiday to rural Wales to get away from it all. Stay safe people . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marvin Boggs Posted March 12, 2020 Author Posted March 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Tommy T. said: According to some, Therein lies the thing about statistics. According to the Cato institute, the problem is we don't know the denominator, because most people recover or their symptoms are too mild etc. So the number of 'cases' is really only the number of people who got it diagnosed. On the Diamond Princess, 18% of the people caught the virus, and 1% of those died. Extrapolated to the population of Earth, that would be around 1.4 billion infected, and around 14 million deaths. Then again over half the population of that ship was over age 60, which is about 5x normal distribution. Perhaps the number of deaths would have been less than 1% with a more normal distribution, but it gets into too many assumptions. For context, I looked up that the Flu normally kills around 250,000 to 500,000 annually, whereas the 1918 Spanish Flu was 20-50 million. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy79 Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) Manila has just gone Code Red Sub Level 2. Not sure of the full legal side but it looks like the districts of Manila have to quarantine. Edited March 12, 2020 by Snowy79 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bastonjock Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I warned my kids about 8 months ago that there was a resession coming , I am now of the opinion that this is going to be accelerated by this virus I watched an interesting tv series on bbc I player called the village ,it was a drama based on an old guys recollection of his and the villages life during 1914 to 1920 era , they covered the spanish flu and how the village self isolated to stop its spread ,I was aware that the same method was used during the black death ,where outsiders would drop off food at a mid way point and avoid contact with the villagers As for spanish flu figures ,the average that I've seen.estimates 50 million dead worldwide This whole scenario is going to get a lot worse before it gets better My instructions from my employer ( NHS ) is that if I come within a meter of a coronavirus patient ,I am to self isolate on full pay, if I am required to fix something in a virus ward ,I will be given the appropriate PPE to wear ,i told my.boss unless its a power failure to a life.saving machine ,he can foxtrot oscar and fix it himself 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fillipino_wannabe Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Marvin Boggs said: Therein lies the thing about statistics. According to the Cato institute, the problem is we don't know the denominator, because most people recover or their symptoms are too mild etc. So the number of 'cases' is really only the number of people who got it diagnosed. On the Diamond Princess, 18% of the people caught the virus, and 1% of those died. Extrapolated to the population of Earth, that would be around 1.4 billion infected, and around 14 million deaths. Then again over half the population of that ship was over age 60, which is about 5x normal distribution. Perhaps the number of deaths would have been less than 1% with a more normal distribution, but it gets into too many assumptions. For context, I looked up that the Flu normally kills around 250,000 to 500,000 annually, whereas the 1918 Spanish Flu was 20-50 million. If I had a pound for every time you mentioned that cruise ship I could afford to move back to the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeoffH Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, fillipino_wannabe said: If I had a pound for every time you mentioned that cruise ship I could afford to move back to the UK. True... those cruise ship transfer are going real cheap right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Dave Hounddriver Posted March 12, 2020 Popular Post Posted March 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, GeoffH said: those cruise ship transfer are going real cheap right now Are you talking about the "Buy one week - stay 2 additional weeks for free" bargain? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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